Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:25:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DF 0xdfa1…e99f crypto 406 markets active 1h ago coverage 735d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$550 (-5%) realized −$550 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate46%182W / 216L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$98now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$4
14 days−$4
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 85% −$542
other 9% −$12
finance 3% $0
tech 2% −$5
world 0% −$1
politics 0% +$6
sports 0% $0
culture 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -3.6% -12.8% 14% 5% -10.5%
≤30d 60 -2.9% -12.1% 30% 3% -10.1%
≤90d 155 -2.5% -11.8% 34% 6% -9.9%
all 398 -4.8% -13.9% 46% 14% -14.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.9% 14% -14.3%
10% -22.1% 6% -22.5%
15% -29.7% 4% -30.0%
20% -36.5% 2% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
69% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$3 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

735d coverage
Net worth$98
Realized−$550
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses182 / 216
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions8
Markets (closed)398 / 406
History coverage735d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 398 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $90 $90 −$0 (-0%)
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027? Yes 92¢ 87¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-5%)
Will Algeria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Senegal win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Iraq win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Jordan win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Czechia win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 96¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 93¢ 92¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Panama win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $1 $0 -1%
Will South Africa win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $1 $0 -1%
GTA VI released before November 2026? Jun 17 $2 $0 -2%
Will GTA 6 cost $100+? Jun 17 $5 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? Jun 17 $90 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Jessica Pegula be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Jun 13 $1 $0 -2%
Will Diana Shnaider be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Jun 13 $1 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $3 $0 -0%
Will Apple release iPhone 18 in 2026? Jun 13 $5 $0 -1%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 12 $15 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $140 in June? Jun 12 $40 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? Jun 12 $40 $0 -0%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +38%
Will Jia Yueting enter mainland China by June 30? Jun 11 $1 $0 -2%
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? Jun 11 $1 $0 -1%
China coup attempt before 2027? Jun 11 $1 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping divorce before 2027? Jun 11 $2 $0 -1%
Jimmy Lai released by June 30? Jun 11 $2 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $82 −$3 -4%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $9,000 by end of June? Jun 10 $45 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in June? Jun 10 $50 $0 +0%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 09 $2 $0 +1%
Will Saudi Aramco be the second-largest company in the world by market Jun 09 $50 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $160 in June? Jun 09 $50 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $1 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o Jun 06 $50 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Jun 06 $70 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 4? Jun 04 $1 $0 +14%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 04 $1 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 04 $1 $0 +10%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 04 $1 $0 +6%
Will Tesla be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Jun 04 $40 $0 -0%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 2? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 02 $29 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 02 $178 $0 -0%
Will Naomi Osaka win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 02 $1 $0 +2%
Will Victoria Mboko win the 2026 Women’s French Open? May 31 $3 $0 +0%
Will Amanda Anisimova win the 2026 Women’s French Open? May 31 $3 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? May 29 $20 $0 +0%
Will Marta Kostyuk win the 2026 Women’s French Open? May 29 $2 $0 -2%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 May 29 $20 −$4 -23%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? May 29 $119 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? May 29 $40 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Paolini win the 2026 Women’s French Open? May 28 $1 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 27? May 27 $20 $0 +0%
Will Haiti win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $1 $0 -1%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,400 in May? May 27 $20 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in May? May 27 $80 $0 -0%
Will Jessica Pegula win the 2026 Women’s French Open? May 27 $1 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Algeria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $1 52m
Will Jordan win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1 53m
Will Senegal win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $1 53m
Will Iraq win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1 54m
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 93¢ $1 54m
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $90 58m
Will Panama win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $1 1h
Will South Africa win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $1 1h
GTA VI released before November 2026? SELL No 94¢ $2 1h
Will GTA 6 cost $100+? SELL No 93¢ $2 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? SELL No 100¢ $90 1h
Will Panama win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $1 3d
Will Czechia win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $1 3d
Will South Africa win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $1 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $1 3d
GTA VI released before November 2026? BUY No 95¢ $2 3d
Will GTA 6 cost $100+? BUY No 94¢ $2 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $90 3d
Will Jessica Pegula be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? SELL No 97¢ $1 3d
Will Diana Shnaider be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? SELL No 99¢ $1 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $2 3d
Will Apple release iPhone 18 in 2026? SELL Yes 96¢ $3 3d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 98¢ $10 4d
Will Solana reach $140 in June? SELL No 100¢ $40 4d
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? SELL No 100¢ $40 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $2 6d
Will Apple release iPhone 18 in 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $3 6d
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027? BUY Yes 92¢ $2 6d
Will Diana Shnaider be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? BUY No 99¢ $1 6d
Will Jessica Pegula be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? BUY No 98¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $97.77 · official $97.77 (match) · 1009 history records