Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:02:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
DF 0xdfa1…d072 other 50 markets active 0h ago coverage 17d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$128 (+10%) realized +$159 · open −$31
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate62%24W / 15L
Drawdown54%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$168now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$76
7 days+$99
14 days+$113
30 days+$113
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 54% −$1
other 41% +$117
politics 3% −$8
world 2% −$20
crypto 1% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)+3.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 +16.7% +5.6% 64% 58% -0.7%
≤30d 39 +14.4% +3.5% 62% 56% +0.0%
≤90d 39 +14.4% +3.5% 62% 56% +0.0%
all 39 +14.4% +3.5% 62% 56% +0.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.5% 56% +0.0%
10% -6.4% 54% -9.5%
15% -15.5% 46% -18.3%
20% -23.8% 23% -26.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 50% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +32% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$16 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.47 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$168
Realized+$159
Unrealized−$31
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses24 / 15
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions11
Markets (closed)39 / 50
History coverage17d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Over 73¢ 74¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 42¢ 40¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-4%)
Will DR Congo be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Yes 56¢ 42¢ $50 $37 −$13 (-26%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 Over 76¢ 76¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 26¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+59%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+8%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-36%)
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $20 $1 −$19 (-93%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+14%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 9¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $124 −$122 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $20 +$7 +33%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $20 +$13 +61%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $29 +$7 +23%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $20 +$16 +78%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $299 +$149 +50%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$4 +43%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $7 +$11 +149%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 $0 -14%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 +$2 +228%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $61 +$19 +31%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Ciryl Gane win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $1 +$3 +246%
Will Justin Gaethje win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +76%
Will Diego Lopes win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $1 +$2 +203%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $76 +$28 +36%
Will Sean O'Malley win by KO or TKO? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$6 -62%
Will CF Universidad de Chile win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $21 +$13 +63%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $20 +$8 +40%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $51 +$19 +36%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 $0 +10%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $20 +$9 +46%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $20 +$9 +42%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $28 +$12 +42%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $55 +$3 +6%
President Trump to Attend USA Opening Match? Jun 11 $16 −$8 -48%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 11 $3 −$2 -68%
Iraq vs. Venezuela: O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $17 +$10 +63%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $6 −$6 -97%
DR Congo vs. Chile: O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $17 +$8 +44%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 09 $13 +$2 +13%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 01 $1 $0 -6%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $1 $0 -9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $31 22m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 72¢ $102 2h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $20 5h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $20 5h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 32¢ $10 5h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $41 5h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $23 7h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $20 20h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $33 20h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 99¢ $449 23h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $299 24h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 80¢ $29 27h
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $16 28h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $20 28h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $20 28h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 39h
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 39h
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 3¢ $5 39h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 47¢ $15 41h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 41h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 30¢ $8 42h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $15 42h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 53¢ $12 43h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 44h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 44h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $5 44h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 42¢ $3 44h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 34¢ $3 44h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 2d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $167.61 · official $167.61 (match) · 95 history records