Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T08:10:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

DF
0xdfa1…74ff
world · 42 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$51 +3%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$59 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP world specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$327
Realized+$59
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses20 / 11
Open positions11
Markets (closed)31 / 42
History coverage22d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day12.1
Drawdown69%
Kalshi-fit98%
Chart Positions 11 History 31 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$21
7 days+$27
14 days+$94
30 days+$59
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 92¢ 98¢ $50 $54 +$4 (+7%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 92¢ 99¢ $50 $53 +$3 (+7%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? No 84¢ 90¢ $49 $53 +$3 (+7%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 No 78¢ 78¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? No 78¢ 76¢ $35 $34 −$1 (-2%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? No 59¢ 62¢ $32 $34 +$2 (+6%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 84¢ 84¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? No 72¢ 70¢ $19 $19 −$0 (-2%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? No 59¢ 26¢ $17 $8 −$9 (-55%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? No 70¢ 38¢ $6 $3 −$3 (-46%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? No 64¢ 98¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+51%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Another US strike on Venezuela by December 31? Jun 13 $20 $0 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 13 $85 +$9 +10%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $31 $0 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 12 $50 −$30 -61%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $30 +$12 +41%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 11 $37 $0 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 10 $47 +$27 +57%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 09 $20 +$5 +27%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $39 +$13 +34%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $60 −$10 -17%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 04 $35 +$18 +50%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $108 +$3 +3%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? Jun 02 $83 +$21 +26%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 01 $20 $0 -2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? Jun 01 $76 +$17 +22%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $40 +$1 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? May 31 $50 +$8 +16%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? May 30 $20 +$3 +15%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28? May 29 $85 +$10 +12%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27? May 28 $70 +$3 +5%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26? May 27 $20 +$4 +20%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? May 26 $20 $0 -1%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31? May 26 $12 −$3 -28%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26? May 26 $20 −$7 -33%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 30? May 26 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23? May 25 $50 +$3 +6%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 25 $20 +$2 +9%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 24 $50 −$38 -75%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22? May 24 $76 +$3 +4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23? May 23 $23 −$10 -46%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 23 $11 −$5 -42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 86% +$47
politics 7% +$7
crypto 6% +$3
other 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? BUY No 60¢ $12 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY No 77¢ $15 2h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY No 77¢ $15 2h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? BUY No 58¢ $20 4h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL No 99¢ $1 5h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL No 99¢ $8 5h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL No 99¢ $7 5h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY No 79¢ $20 5h
Another US strike on Venezuela by December 31? BUY Yes 98¢ $20 6h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 38¢ $4 11h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 33¢ $3 12h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $23 24h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $9 25h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 83¢ $10 27h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 84¢ $20 28h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 84¢ $19 28h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY No 91¢ $14 29h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY No 91¢ $1 29h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 25¢ $0 31h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL No 61¢ $11 31h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL No 82¢ $18 31h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY No 75¢ $15 33h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY No 59¢ $10 36h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL No 79¢ $1 36h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $20 36h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY No 86¢ $7 36h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY No 86¢ $13 36h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY No 76¢ $12 37h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL No 77¢ $9 38h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY No 86¢ $20 39h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +9.4% -1.0% 70% 40% -3.8%
≤30d 31 -1.4% -10.8% 65% 35% -5.4%
≤90d 31 -1.4% -10.8% 65% 35% -5.4%
all 31 -1.4% -10.8% 65% 35% -5.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover12.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 35% -5.4%
10% -19.3% 23% -14.5%
15% -27.1% 10% -22.8%
20% -34.2% 6% -30.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $327.14 · official $327.03 (match) · 278 history records