Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:27:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DF 0xdf9b…f309 crypto 564 markets active 4d ago coverage 207d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 206d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,794 (-12%) realized −$1,794 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate67%381W / 188L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day14.9pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$54
7 days−$63
14 days−$90
30 days−$105
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$1,731
sports 1% −$42
politics 0% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 91 -8.3% -17.0% 79% 1% -28.0%
≤30d 424 -3.1% -12.4% 75% 5% -16.7%
≤90d 424 -3.1% -12.4% 75% 5% -16.7%
all 569 -4.6% -13.7% 67% 9% -21.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.7% 9% -21.9%
10% -21.9% 4% -29.3%
15% -29.5% 2% -36.2%
20% -36.4% 2% -42.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$13 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.24 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

207d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,794
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses381 / 188
Open positions0
Markets (closed)569 / 564
History coverage207d ⚠
Avg bet$27
Trades / day14.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 569 Trades
no open positions (33 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trinidad and Tobago win on 2025-11-18? Jun 17 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Jeremy Strong win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Award Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
New Zealand ODI Series: New Zealand vs West Indies (Game 2) Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Spread: Maple Leafs (-1.5) Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on November 19? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$2 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$2 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$2 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$1 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET SELL Up 54¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET SELL Up 49¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET SELL Down 44¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET SELL Down 36¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET SELL Down 30¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $3 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records