Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T00:15:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DF 0xdf9a…1c50 crypto 90 markets active 0h ago coverage 212d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$97 (-2%) realized −$82 · open −$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate43%37W / 50L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$59per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$25est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$170now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$66
7 days+$66
14 days−$404
30 days−$347
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 55% −$104
other 22% +$276
crypto 12% −$74
politics 10% −$297
world 2% +$101
culture 0% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-23.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +16.1% +5.0% 80% 60% +18.2%
≤30d 22 -9.6% -18.2% 36% 32% -35.0%
≤90d 81 -17.7% -25.5% 43% 36% -16.5%
all 87 -15.0% -23.1% 43% 36% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.1% 36% -10.9%
10% -30.4% 29% -19.5%
15% -37.1% 26% -27.2%
20% -43.3% 18% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$27 · ×1.27 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

212d coverage
Net worth$170
Realized−$82
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses37 / 50
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions3
Markets (closed)87 / 90
History coverage212d
Avg bet$59
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 87 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $150 $149 −$1 (-1%)
Oscar Bobb: 1+ assists Yes 35¢ 50¢ $15 $21 +$6 (+41%)
Antonio Nusa: 1+ goals Yes 32¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $114 +$16 +14%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $10 +$12 +118%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $85 +$39 +46%
Iraq to score first vs. Norway? Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $10 −$10 -98%
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor? Jun 07 $16 −$7 -42%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 03 $431 −$430 -100%
Will Trump say "Big Beautiful Bill" during Wisconsin events? Jun 03 $25 −$24 -98%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 1 Sweden? Jun 01 $11 +$62 +578%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 0 Sweden? Jun 01 $5 −$5 -98%
Norway leading at halftime? Jun 01 $5 +$7 +130%
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 1 Sweden? Jun 01 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $3 −$2 -52%
World Championships: Switzerland vs. Norway May 30 $21 −$21 -100%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score May 30 $81 $0 -1%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $1 $0 -2%
Counter-Strike: ENCE vs CYBERSHOKE Prospects - Map 2 Winner May 26 $1 −$1 -97%
Counter-Strike: Galorys vs ex-KRÜ Esports (BO3) - CCT South America Se May 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: Tricked vs 1WIN - Map 2 Winner May 21 $40 +$16 +40%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs paiN (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group A May 21 $301 +$133 +44%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Liquid (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Gro May 21 $122 −$107 -88%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO5) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 17 $390 +$18 +5%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 15? May 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $25 −$24 -97%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $164 −$26 -16%
Counter-Strike: Vexa vs paiN Academy - Map 2 Winner May 16 $54 +$25 +46%
Counter-Strike: magic vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump Insult Xi this week? May 15 $16 −$15 -96%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner May 15 $19 +$11 +59%
Counter-Strike: Vexa vs BESTIA Academy (BO3) - CCT South America Serie May 15 $101 +$54 +53%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner May 15 $20 −$7 -35%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 15 $303 +$57 +19%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner May 15 $20 −$9 -46%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Nemiga (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 1 Playoff May 15 $291 +$19 +6%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs magic (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 15 $51 +$32 +64%
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? May 13 $31 −$6 -20%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs BC.Game Esports - Map 2 Winner May 12 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs BC.Game Esports - Map 1 Winner May 12 $251 +$43 +17%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs BC.Game Esports (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A May 12 $20 −$10 -50%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs G2 (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 12 $10 +$8 +82%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Gentle Mates (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 12 $10 −$9 -87%
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs magic (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 12 $197 +$70 +36%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? May 11 $100 +$101 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Apr 11 $50 −$48 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Apr 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Apr 10 $45 +$5 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Apr 10 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Apr 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Apr 10 $50 +$5 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $152 1m
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $131 2m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 100¢ $22 2m
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 87¢ $114 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 45¢ $10 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners SELL Over 99¢ $125 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 67¢ $85 2h
Iraq to score first vs. Norway? SELL Yes 16¢ $5 2h
Iraq to score first vs. Norway? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 12h
Antonio Nusa: 1+ goals BUY Yes 32¢ $20 12h
Oscar Bobb: 1+ assists BUY Yes 35¢ $15 12h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 12h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-07? BUY Yes 40¢ $10 9d
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor? SELL Yes 7¢ $9 9d
Counter-Strike: M80 vs B8 - Map 2 Winner BUY M80 94¢ $431 13d
Will Trump say "Big Beautiful Bill" during Wisconsin events? BUY No 18¢ $0 13d
Will Trump say "Big Beautiful Bill" during Wisconsin events? BUY No 18¢ $2 13d
Will Trump say "Big Beautiful Bill" during Wisconsin events? BUY No 18¢ $7 13d
Will Trump say "Big Beautiful Bill" during Wisconsin events? BUY No 17¢ $14 13d
Will Trump say "Big Beautiful Bill" during Wisconsin events? BUY No 16¢ $0 13d
Will Trump say "Big Beautiful Bill" during Wisconsin events? BUY No 22¢ $1 13d
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 1 Sweden? SELL Yes 99¢ $73 15d
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 0 Sweden? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 15d
Norway leading at halftime? SELL Yes 97¢ $12 15d
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 11¢ $6 15d
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 15d
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 15d
Norway leading at halftime? BUY Yes 41¢ $5 15d
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 15d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $170.09 · official $170.09 (match) · 207 history records