Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:33:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
DF 0xdf97…4653 sports 696 markets active 2h ago coverage 133d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 133d only
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$9,255 (+2%) realized +$10,050 · open −$795
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate73%503W / 184L
Whale WR89%big bets
Drawdown51%max
Avg bet$873per market
Trades / day19.2pace
Fees−$30est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$10,730now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$286
7 days−$286
14 days+$1,050
30 days+$4,261
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 48% −$746
other 15% +$4,472
sports 13% +$526
world 12% +$1,705
finance 6% +$1,477
crypto 2% +$575
tech 2% −$2,980
weather 2% +$336
culture 1% +$38
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)+8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -38.9% -44.7% 44% 0% -11.3%
≤30d 173 +56.4% +41.5% 71% 18% -7.9%
≤90d 520 +24.5% +12.6% 71% 14% -8.9%
all 687 +20.0% +8.6% 73% 14% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.2 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +8.6% 14% -8.4%
10% ← realistic here -1.8% 13% -17.2%
15% -11.3% 10% -25.2%
20% -20.0% 9% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 89% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +11% → late +29% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$74 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.47 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

133d coverage
Net worth$10,730
Realized+$10,050
Unrealized−$795
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses503 / 184
Whale WR (big bets)89%
Est. fees paid−$30
Open positions12
Markets (closed)687 / 696
History coverage133d ⚠
Avg bet$873
Trades / day19.2
Drawdown51%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 687 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 50¢ 58¢ $4,700 $5,499 +$799 (+17%)
Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 50¢ 42¢ $4,700 $3,901 −$799 (-17%)
Will Micron Q3 adjusted gross margin be below 75%? No 72¢ 66¢ $791 $725 −$66 (-8%)
Will Goldman Sachs (GS) Q2 investment banking fees be above $2.1B? Yes 91¢ 92¢ $205 $208 +$3 (+2%)
Will Goldman Sachs (GS) Q2 investment banking fees be above $2.6B? Yes 52¢ 66¢ $124 $160 +$36 (+29%)
Will General Mills Q4 organic net sales growth be between 0% and 1.5%? Yes 21¢ 24¢ $40 $47 +$7 (+17%)
Will General Mills Q4 organic net sales growth be between -1.5% and 0%? Yes 7¢ 39¢ $6 $34 +$28 (+483%)
Will Goldman Sachs (GS) Q2 investment banking fees be above $2.35B? Yes 75¢ 89¢ $27 $32 +$5 (+19%)
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+7%)
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+7%)
Will General Mills Q4 organic net sales growth be between -3% and -1.5%? Yes 4¢ 20¢ $2 $9 +$7 (+412%)
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-14%)
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by June 30? Yes 43¢ 4¢ $18 $2 −$16 (-91%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Kroger Q1 identical sales without fuel growth be between 1.5% and Jun 18 $160 −$139 -87%
Will Kroger Q1 identical sales without fuel growth be above 2%? Jun 18 $299 −$217 -72%
Will Kroger (KR) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 18 $54 $0 +1%
Will Kroger Q1 identical sales without fuel growth be between 1% and 1 Jun 18 $89 +$4 +5%
Will Kroger Q1 identical sales without fuel growth be below 1%? Jun 18 $223 +$8 +4%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Call of Duty: OpTic Texas vs G2 Minnesota - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $13,938 +$62 +0%
Will Morgan Stanley (MS) Q2 investment banking revenue be above $1.9B? Jun 13 $9 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 11? Jun 12 $1 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 11? Jun 12 $989 +$44 +4%
Will RH Q1 revenue be above $850M? Jun 11 $2 +$1 +33%
Will Lennar Q2 deliveries be above 22,500? Jun 11 $11 +$2 +16%
Will Adobe (ADBE) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 11 $22 $0 +1%
Will RH Q1 revenue be above $800M? Jun 11 $32 +$1 +3%
Will Lennar Q2 deliveries be above 17,500? Jun 11 $57 +$1 +2%
Will RH Q1 revenue be above $750M? Jun 11 $94 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C or higher on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -55%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $526 +$30 +6%
Will Oracle say "Temu" during earnings call? Jun 11 $163 +$12 +8%
Will Trump announce Devin Nunes as the next Director of National Intel Jun 11 $96 +$1 +1%
Will Trump announce Stephen Miller as the next Director of National In Jun 11 $313 +$1 +0%
Will Trump announce Tom Cotton as the next Director of National Intell Jun 11 $409 +$1 +0%
Will Trump announce Amaryllis Fox Kennedy as the next Director of Nati Jun 11 $457 +$3 +1%
Will Trump announce John Eisenberg as the next Director of National In Jun 11 $518 +$1 +0%
Will Trump announce Sebastian Gorka as the next Director of National I Jun 11 $519 +$1 +0%
Will Casey's General Stores (CASY) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 10 $1 $0 +6%
Will Oracle Q4 Remaining Performance Obligations be above $500B? Jun 10 $796 +$8 +1%
Will Oracle Q4 Remaining Performance Obligations be above $600B? Jun 10 $1,207 +$46 +4%
Will Oracle say "TikTok" during earnings call? Jun 10 $79 +$1 +1%
Will Oracle say "Bubble" during earnings call? Jun 10 $129 +$1 +1%
Will Oracle say "China" during earnings call? Jun 10 $462 +$18 +4%
Will Oracle say "Momentum" during earnings call? Jun 10 $6 −$6 -97%
Will Oracle 2026 capital expenditures be above $55B? Jun 10 $22 +$49 +228%
Will Cracker Barrel Old Country Store (CBRL) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 09 $406 +$14 +4%
Will Matthew Dominick be chosen for the Artemis III mission? Jun 09 $15 $0 +1%
Will Victor Glover be chosen for the Artemis III mission? Jun 09 $19 $0 +1%
Will Frank Rubio be chosen for the Artemis III mission? Jun 09 $19 $0 +1%
Will Jasmin Moghbeli be chosen for the Artemis III mission? Jun 09 $20 $0 +1%
Will Jessica Watkins be chosen for the Artemis III mission? Jun 09 $29 $0 +1%
Will Anne McClain be chosen for the Artemis III mission? Jun 09 $35 $0 +1%
Will Jenni Gibbons be chosen for the Artemis III mission? Jun 09 $48 $0 +1%
Will Jessica Meir be chosen for the Artemis III mission? Jun 09 $65 +$1 +1%
Will Raja Chari be chosen for the Artemis III mission? Jun 09 $90 +$1 +1%
Will Andre Douglas be chosen for the Artemis III mission? Jun 09 $109 +$1 +1%
Will Kayla Barron be chosen for the Artemis III mission? Jun 09 $130 +$1 +1%
Will Takuya Onishi be chosen for the Artemis III mission? Jun 09 $136 +$2 +1%
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 1-June 7? Jun 09 $1,438 +$19 +1%
Will Kimiya Yui be chosen for the Artemis III mission? Jun 09 $176 +$2 +1%
Will Christina Koch be chosen for the Artemis III mission? Jun 09 $242 +$2 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Micron Q3 adjusted gross margin be below 75%? BUY No 73¢ $363 1h
Will Micron Q3 adjusted gross margin be below 75%? BUY No 72¢ $437 2h
Will General Mills Q4 organic net sales growth be between 0% and 1.5%? BUY Yes 21¢ $17 32h
Will Kroger (KR) beat quarterly earnings? BUY No 99¢ $54 35h
Will Kroger Q1 identical sales without fuel growth be below 1%? BUY No 98¢ $49 35h
Will Kroger Q1 identical sales without fuel growth be between 1% and 1 BUY Yes 97¢ $33 35h
Will Kroger Q1 identical sales without fuel growth be between 1% and 1 BUY Yes 92¢ $20 35h
Will Kroger Q1 identical sales without fuel growth be below 1%? BUY No 97¢ $21 35h
Will Kroger Q1 identical sales without fuel growth be below 1%? BUY No 97¢ $70 35h
Will Kroger Q1 identical sales without fuel growth be between 1% and 1 BUY Yes 95¢ $36 35h
Will Kroger Q1 identical sales without fuel growth be below 1%? BUY No 95¢ $83 35h
Will Kroger Q1 identical sales without fuel growth be between 1.5% and SELL Yes 1¢ $1 35h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,990 46h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,990 46h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,990 46h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,992 46h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,992 46h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $3,984 2d
Will General Mills Q4 organic net sales growth be between 0% and 1.5%? BUY Yes 21¢ $23 2d
Will Kroger Q1 identical sales without fuel growth be between 1.5% and BUY Yes 8¢ $12 2d
Will Goldman Sachs (GS) Q2 investment banking fees be above $2.6B? SELL Yes 73¢ $109 2d
Will Morgan Stanley (MS) Q2 investment banking revenue be above $1.9B? SELL Yes 94¢ $9 6d
Will Morgan Stanley (MS) Q2 investment banking revenue be above $1.9B? BUY Yes 94¢ $9 6d
Call of Duty: OpTic Texas vs G2 Minnesota - Game 1 Winner BUY G2 Minnesota 22¢ $1 7d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Golden Knights 54¢ $3 7d
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C or higher on June 11? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 7d
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 11? BUY Yes 98¢ $153 8d
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 11? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 8d
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 11? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 8d
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 11? SELL No 2¢ $0 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10,729.70 · official $10,729.71 (match) · 3500 history records