Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T11:17:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DF 0xdf95…0d17 world 87 markets active 1h ago coverage 517d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$16 (-0%) realized −$16 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate38%32W / 52L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$0
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 40% −$2
politics 19% $0
other 19% −$7
sports 18% −$6
finance 3% +$1
tech 1% $0
economics 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -1.5% -10.8% 38% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 30 -0.4% -9.8% 40% 3% -9.8%
≤90d 74 -0.0% -9.5% 36% 3% -9.7%
all 84 -3.4% -12.6% 38% 4% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.6% 4% -9.9%
10% -21.0% 2% -18.5%
15% -28.6% 2% -26.4%
20% -35.6% 1% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 47% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

517d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses32 / 52
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions3
Markets (closed)84 / 87
History coverage517d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 84 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+5%)
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 96¢ 93¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Yes 9¢ 6¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-33%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $74 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $3 $0 -15%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $41 +$1 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $72 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 10 $41 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $18 $0 +2%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 10 $47 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 08 $40 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $40 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $111 +$1 +1%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $62 −$2 -3%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $55 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 03 $15 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 02 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? May 31 $5 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 31 $146 −$5 -3%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $40 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 27 $81 +$1 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 26 $11 $0 -3%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 26 $39 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 25 $35 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 25 $38 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 24 $21 −$1 -3%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 24 $83 +$1 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 22 $42 −$1 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 20 $46 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 18 $4 $0 +11%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 17 $14 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 16 $35 $0 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 16 $21 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 15 $87 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 11 $19 $0 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 11 $15 −$1 -4%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 09 $26 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $233 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $91 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $92 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 26 $113 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 25 $54 −$1 -1%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $11 $0 +0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $45 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 22 $41 $0 +0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? Apr 21 $45 +$1 +2%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 21 $41 $0 -0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 20 $84 −$1 -1%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 19 $1 $0 -7%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 19 $5 −$1 -13%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 18 $42 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $44 $0 -0%
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? Apr 17 $1 $0 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 1h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 1h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 85¢ $25 20h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 85¢ $13 21h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 82¢ $36 22h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 34h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 36h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 75¢ $3 41h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 75¢ $34 41h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 78¢ $37 43h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 78¢ $2 43h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $42 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $41 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 63¢ $27 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 63¢ $4 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 63¢ $31 2d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $41 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $41 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 45¢ $16 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 45¢ $2 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 44¢ $18 4d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL No 34¢ $11 5d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL No 34¢ $3 5d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL No 34¢ $19 5d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY No 34¢ $33 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 68¢ $39 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 68¢ $2 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 68¢ $41 6d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL No 33¢ $14 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.72 · official $4.09 (match) · 359 history records