Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:22:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DF 0xdf95…6e1e crypto 62 markets active 1h ago coverage 634d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$39 (-1%) realized −$35 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate41%25W / 36L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$58per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$30est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$56now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$172
7 days+$267
14 days+$267
30 days+$267
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% −$33
sports 30% +$41
crypto 15% −$157
politics 3% +$45
world 1% +$36
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-20.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +27.5% +15.4% 50% 40% +1.0%
≤30d 20 +27.5% +15.4% 50% 40% +1.0%
≤90d 60 -12.8% -21.1% 40% 37% -7.8%
all 61 -12.5% -20.9% 41% 36% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.9% 36% -7.7%
10% -28.4% 31% -16.6%
15% -35.3% 30% -24.6%
20% -41.7% 25% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 43% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$28 · ×1.35 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

634d coverage
Net worth$56
Realized−$35
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses25 / 36
Est. fees paid−$30
Open positions1
Markets (closed)61 / 62
History coverage634d
Avg bet$58
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 61 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 18¢ $60 $56 −$4 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $350 +$10 +3%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $102 +$3 +3%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $77 −$75 -98%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $88 +$340 +387%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $452 −$135 -30%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $204 −$150 -74%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $308 +$66 +21%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $61 −$27 -44%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $31 −$22 -71%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $312 +$45 +14%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $268 +$57 +21%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $41 −$13 -32%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $77 −$27 -35%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $26 −$4 -17%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $51 +$70 +137%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $31 +$36 +117%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $31 +$76 +248%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $31 −$9 -30%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $105 −$39 -37%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $51 +$67 +132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Apr 19 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Apr 19 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Apr 19 $6 −$6 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Apr 19 $5 +$2 +36%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Lucknow Super Giants Apr 19 $20 −$19 -97%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Punjab Kings Apr 16 $104 −$100 -96%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Kolkata Knight Riders Apr 14 $100 −$98 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Apr 12 $10 −$5 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Apr 12 $15 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Apr 12 $20 −$10 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Apr 12 $10 −$9 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Apr 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Apr 12 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Apr 12 $15 −$8 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Apr 12 $10 +$9 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Apr 12 $10 +$17 +170%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Apr 12 $10 +$6 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Apr 12 $7 −$7 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Apr 12 $30 −$29 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Apr 12 $20 +$11 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Apr 12 $15 −$14 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Apr 12 $10 +$4 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Apr 12 $20 +$7 +35%
Solana Up or Down - April 11, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Apr 11 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Apr 11 $27 −$11 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Apr 11 $7 +$5 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Apr 11 $20 −$19 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Apr 11 $20 −$19 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Apr 11 $30 +$13 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Apr 11 $30 −$28 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $61 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $360 1h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 97¢ $350 1h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? SELL Yes 86¢ $102 1h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 41¢ $102 2h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $77 7h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $187 7h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 90¢ $170 7h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 57¢ $71 7h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $88 10h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 89¢ $78 20h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 10¢ $54 20h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 36¢ $204 21h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 53¢ $228 21h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 85¢ $373 21h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $308 24h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes 14¢ $34 24h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 4¢ $9 24h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $31 25h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $61 25h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 87¢ $312 27h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? SELL Yes 10¢ $28 27h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $41 29h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $325 29h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $268 29h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 15¢ $50 29h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 14¢ $21 29h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 16¢ $26 31h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $77 35h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $55.50 · official $55.50 (match) · 125 history records