Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:09:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DF 0xdf94…2104 other 994 markets active 0h ago coverage 94d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$19 (+0%) realized +$22 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate100%989W / 3L
Drawdown23%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day10.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% +$11
sports 46% −$2
crypto 1% $0
finance 1% $0
weather 1% +$12
world 0% $0
tech 0% −$5
politics 0% $0
economics 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 104 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 267 -0.1% -9.7% 100% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 947 +0.3% -9.2% 100% 1% -9.2%
all 992 +0.3% -9.2% 100% 1% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 1% -9.2%
10% -17.9% 0% -17.9%
15% -25.8% 0% -25.8%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 44% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$3 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.88 per $1 lost it wins $2.88
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

94d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized+$22
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses989 / 3
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)992 / 994
History coverage94d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day10.6
Drawdown23%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 992 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Radivojevic vs. Curmi: Match O/U 22.5 Under 100¢ 100¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-0%)
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Malawi - Team Top Batter Brazil Winner Yes 100¢ 50¢ $5 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Game 1: Both Teams Beat Roshan? Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
ITF Women Monastir: Completed Match: Sarra Attig vs Summer Yardley Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Tepmahc vs. Kamboj: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Padula vs. Jamshidi: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $4 $0 +0%
Photiades vs. Inchauspe: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Game Handicap: WB (-1.5) vs eStar Pro (+1.5) Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Medvedeva vs. Kumru: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Jilly vs. Major: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Popa vs. Biro: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Goncalo Marques vs. Thijs Boogaard: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Set 1 Winner: Boitan vs Morega Jun 17 $5 $0 +2%
Game 2: Any Player Ultra Kill? Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Marko Arnautovic: 2+ shots on target Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Set 1 Winner: Moratelli/Pace vs Jakupovic/Radisic Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Steiner vs. Bennemann: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Zelinskaya vs. Luo: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Set 2 Winner: Amariei vs Simion Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Marko Arnautovic: 5+ shots Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Michael Gregoritsch: 1+ assists Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Michael Gregoritsch: 3+ shots Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Michael Gregoritsch: 1+ shots on target Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Xaver Schlager: 2+ goals Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Julián Álvarez: 1+ shots Jun 17 $4 $0 +3%
Julián Álvarez: 1+ goals + assists Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Sora Fukuda vs. Shunsuke Nakagawa: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Amine Gouiri: 1+ shots on target Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Reid Detmers: Strikeouts O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Brandon Young: Strikeouts O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Sato vs. Shin: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Jake Meyers: Home Runs O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $4 $0 +0%
Abe vs. Yamazaki: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Cody Bellinger: Home Runs O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $4 $0 +0%
Marcus Thuram: 2+ assists Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Set 1 Winner: Vilar vs Adkar Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ruben Amorim be the next manager of Elche CF? Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
StarCraft II: ByuN vs trigger - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Wolff vs. Broek: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 16 $4 $0 +0%
Set Handicap: Guilleme (-1.5) vs Ciavarella (+1.5) Jun 16 $4 $0 +0%
Rispoli vs. Ortenzi: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
ITF Women Taipei: Completed Match: Natsumi Kawaguchi vs Yuno Kitahara Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Joey Loperfido: Home Runs O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $4 $0 +0%
Federico Viñas: 3+ shots Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Josh Bell: Home Runs O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Nicolas Raskin: 1+ shots on target Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Manuel Ugarte: 3+ goals + assists Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Ibrahim Adel: 1+ goals + assists Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Trezeguet: 4+ shots Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Trezeguet: 2+ goals + assists Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Dodi Lukebakio: 2+ shots on target Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Martín Zubimendi: 2+ shots on target Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Radivojevic vs. Curmi: Match O/U 22.5 BUY Under 100¢ $4 0m
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Malawi - Team Top Batter Braz BUY Yes 100¢ $5 0m
ITF Women Monastir: Completed Match: Sarra Attig vs Summer Yardley BUY Yes 100¢ $5 1h
Padula vs. Jamshidi: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5 BUY Over 100¢ $4 1h
Game 1: Both Teams Beat Roshan? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 2h
Tepmahc vs. Kamboj: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Over 100¢ $5 2h
Game Handicap: WB (-1.5) vs eStar Pro (+1.5) BUY Weibo Gaming 100¢ $5 2h
Medvedeva vs. Kumru: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 BUY Under 100¢ $5 3h
Photiades vs. Inchauspe: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 BUY Under 100¢ $5 3h
Jilly vs. Major: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 BUY Over 100¢ $5 3h
Goncalo Marques vs. Thijs Boogaard: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Under 2.5 100¢ $5 3h
Popa vs. Biro: Match O/U 22.5 BUY Under 100¢ $5 3h
Set 1 Winner: Boitan vs Morega BUY Boitan 98¢ $5 4h
Set 1 Winner: Moratelli/Pace vs Jakupovic/Radisic BUY Jakupovic/Radisic 100¢ $5 5h
Steiner vs. Bennemann: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 BUY Under 100¢ $5 5h
Zelinskaya vs. Luo: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 BUY Under 100¢ $5 5h
Game 2: Any Player Ultra Kill? BUY No 99¢ $5 6h
Marko Arnautovic: 2+ shots on target BUY Yes 100¢ $5 6h
Marko Arnautovic: 5+ shots BUY No 100¢ $5 6h
Set 2 Winner: Amariei vs Simion BUY Amariei 100¢ $5 6h
Michael Gregoritsch: 1+ shots on target BUY No 100¢ $5 8h
Michael Gregoritsch: 3+ shots BUY No 100¢ $5 8h
Michael Gregoritsch: 1+ assists BUY No 100¢ $5 8h
Xaver Schlager: 2+ goals BUY No 100¢ $5 8h
Julián Álvarez: 1+ shots BUY No 97¢ $4 9h
Julián Álvarez: 1+ goals + assists BUY No 100¢ $5 9h
Sora Fukuda vs. Shunsuke Nakagawa: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Under 2.5 100¢ $5 9h
Amine Gouiri: 1+ shots on target BUY No 100¢ $5 10h
Reid Detmers: Strikeouts O/U 4.5 BUY Under 100¢ $5 10h
Brandon Young: Strikeouts O/U 2.5 BUY Under 100¢ $5 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.48 · official $6.48 (match) · 2238 history records