Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T22:33:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DF 0xdf91…6516 other 13 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$190 (-54%) realized −$190 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -69% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -73% what you keep after slip
Net edge-73%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate27%3W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day5.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit23%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 93% −$186
sports 7% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-71.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -68.6% -71.6% 27% 0% -60.1%
≤30d 11 -68.6% -71.6% 27% 0% -60.1%
≤90d 11 -68.6% -71.6% 27% 0% -60.1%
all 11 -68.6% -71.6% 27% 0% -60.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -71.6% 0% -60.1%
10% -74.3% 0% -63.9%
15% -76.8% 0% -67.4%
20% -79.1% 0% -70.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 91% · top 2 98% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -56% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -69% · $-wt -56% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$25 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized−$190
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses3 / 8
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)11 / 13
History coverage3d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day5.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit23%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Yes 80¢ 72¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 $0 +1%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $100 +$6 +6%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -91%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$7 -73%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $20 +$1 +3%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $50 −$50 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $2 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $5 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $20 31h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 99¢ $20 42h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $100 46h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 2d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 16¢ $3 2d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $5 2d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 100¢ $21 2d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 97¢ $10 2d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 98¢ $10 2d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $100 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $50 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.78 · official $6.78 (match) · 19 history records