Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T11:46:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

5.0
score
DF 0xdf90…41f0 world 166 markets active 14h ago coverage 131d ⚠
RISKYcopy with care world specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 131d only
! high turnover
Total PnL +$30,613 (+42%) realized +$31,132 · open −$519
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +84% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +42% what you keep after slip
Net edge+42%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate64%91W / 52L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown5%max
Avg bet$442per market
Trades / day25.8pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$3,849now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$17,953
7 days+$18,211
14 days+$20,020
30 days+$23,540
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 96% +$30,865
other 4% −$106
politics 0% −$160
crypto 0% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)+66.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +428.3% +378.0% 57% 57% +160.0%
≤30d 52 +193.1% +165.2% 62% 48% +37.4%
≤90d 111 +107.4% +87.6% 64% 54% +27.7%
all 143 +84.2% +66.6% 64% 47% +23.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +66.6% 47% +23.8%
10% ← realistic here +50.7% 35% +12.0%
15% +36.1% 27% +1.2%
20% +22.8% 22% -8.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +55% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +84% · $-wt +49% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +22% → late +146% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
16.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$401 vs −$105 · ×3.81 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×6.8 per $1 lost it wins $6.8
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

131d coverage
Net worth$3,849
Realized+$31,132
Unrealized−$519
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses91 / 52
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Open positions23
Markets (closed)143 / 166
History coverage131d ⚠
Avg bet$442
Trades / day25.8
Drawdown5%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 23 History 143 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Yes 79¢ 88¢ $1,905 $2,143 +$237 (+12%)
Will Netanyahu talk to Joseph Aoun by June 30? No 86¢ 90¢ $662 $687 +$25 (+4%)
Israeli forces enter Choukine by June 30? No 58¢ 71¢ $309 $378 +$70 (+23%)
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026? Yes 13¢ 3¢ $776 $186 −$590 (-76%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European country? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $39 $128 +$89 (+229%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Austria? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $160 $94 −$66 (-41%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $50 $61 +$11 (+22%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $25 $27 +$2 (+7%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 5¢ $20 $26 +$6 (+30%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $25 $22 −$3 (-12%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Italy? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $54 $20 −$34 (-64%)
Israeli forces enter Tyre by June 30? No 81¢ 96¢ $14 $17 +$3 (+19%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $57 $13 −$44 (-77%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Egypt? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $44 $8 −$36 (-82%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Saudi Arabia? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $25 $7 −$18 (-73%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Iraq? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $13 $6 −$6 (-50%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another Middle East/North Africa country? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $24 $6 −$18 (-75%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Turkey? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $119 $6 −$113 (-95%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another country? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $19 $5 −$14 (-75%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the UAE? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $13 $4 −$9 (-67%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Kazakhstan? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $6 $3 −$3 (-50%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Russia? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $6 $2 −$4 (-68%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Iran? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-73%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 15? Jun 16 $8 +$2 +18%
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 30? Jun 15 $1,866 +$1,005 +54%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Jun 15 $41 +$3,334 +8171%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 14 $317 +$11,046 +3481%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 14 $1,869 +$3,278 +175%
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $712 −$712 -100%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 12 $357 +$43 +12%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Jun 11 $1,361 +$806 +59%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 11 $63 +$82 +130%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $225 −$225 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $185 −$126 -68%
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? Jun 10 $346 −$282 -81%
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 22, 2026? Jun 10 $15 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $105 −$40 -38%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $194 −$78 -40%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 08 $300 +$10 +4%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $5,733 −$940 -16%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $624 +$2,056 +330%
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 7? Jun 04 $3,093 +$761 +25%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 01 $155 +$20 +13%
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by May 31? Jun 01 $290 +$106 +37%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? May 31 $245 +$3 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $530 −$221 -42%
Ousmane Dembele: Anytime Goalscorer May 30 $25 +$48 +188%
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia: Anytime Goalscorer May 30 $26 −$25 -98%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? May 30 $404 +$7 +2%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 2 - 1 Arsenal FC? May 30 $57 −$55 -97%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? May 30 $180 −$180 -100%
Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? May 30 $518 +$50 +10%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? May 29 $24 +$6 +26%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? May 29 $100 +$2 +2%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by May 31? May 29 $625 −$24 -4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 29 $1,293 +$180 +14%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $1,587 +$872 +55%
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31? May 29 $4,965 +$1,846 +37%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 28 $450 +$28 +6%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 28 $300 +$9 +3%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? May 28 $406 +$122 +30%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 28 $100 +$31 +31%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 26 $312 −$254 -81%
Nawaf Salam out as Lebanon PM in 2026? May 26 $32 +$5 +15%
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? May 25 $665 −$168 -25%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26? May 25 $10 +$78 +784%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27? May 25 $87 +$190 +218%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31? May 25 $191 +$1,005 +526%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 7? May 25 $150 +$801 +534%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? May 25 $21 −$10 -46%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26? May 25 $500 −$5 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by May 24? May 23 $721 −$721 -100%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the United States? May 21 $1 +$66 +4586%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israeli forces enter Choukine by June 30? SELL No 85¢ $0 14h
Israeli forces enter Choukine by June 30? SELL No 85¢ $67 14h
Israeli forces enter Choukine by June 30? SELL No 85¢ $98 14h
Will Netanyahu talk to Joseph Aoun by June 30? BUY No 85¢ $312 15h
Will Netanyahu talk to Joseph Aoun by June 30? BUY No 89¢ $19 15h
Will Netanyahu talk to Joseph Aoun by June 30? BUY No 88¢ $201 15h
Will Netanyahu talk to Joseph Aoun by June 30? BUY No 83¢ $7 16h
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $62 24h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? SELL Yes 42¢ $3,089 25h
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $372 25h
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $8 26h
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $400 26h
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $999 27h
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $28 27h
Will Netanyahu talk to Joseph Aoun by June 30? BUY No 83¢ $16 33h
Israeli forces enter Choukine by June 30? SELL No 85¢ $100 37h
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $54 37h
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $300 37h
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $79 37h
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 30? SELL No 75¢ $448 38h
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 30? SELL No 75¢ $106 38h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 85¢ $93 38h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 87¢ $110 38h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 85¢ $93 38h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 85¢ $9,559 38h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 85¢ $34 38h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 85¢ $12 38h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 85¢ $12 38h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 85¢ $25 38h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 85¢ $12 38h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,848.79 · official $3,848.79 (match) · 3500 history records