Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T00:47:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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DF 0xdf8e…b1d0 sports 102 markets active 1h ago coverage 19d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$107 (+6%) realized +$123 · open −$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate49%49W / 51L
Drawdown50%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day22.6pace
Fees−$25est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$21
7 days+$129
14 days+$109
30 days+$110
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 65% +$117
other 33% +$1
politics 2% −$16
crypto 1% −$8
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-1.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 +23.0% +11.3% 62% 36% +2.7%
≤30d 100 +9.3% -1.1% 49% 25% -3.1%
≤90d 100 +9.3% -1.1% 49% 25% -3.1%
all 100 +9.3% -1.1% 49% 25% -3.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -1.1% 25% -3.1%
10% ← realistic here -10.6% 19% -12.4%
15% -19.2% 12% -20.9%
20% -27.1% 9% -28.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$3 · ×1.86 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.78 per $1 lost it wins $1.78
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized+$123
Unrealized−$16
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses49 / 51
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions2
Markets (closed)100 / 102
History coverage19d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day22.6
Drawdown50%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 100 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 68¢ 62¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-8%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 14¢ 2¢ $17 $2 −$15 (-87%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $30 +$8 +28%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $20 +$4 +22%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $10 +$1 +10%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $15 +$1 +10%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $18 +$13 +73%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $11 −$1 -6%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $26 +$7 +29%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $31 −$12 -39%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $2 −$1 -53%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $96 +$24 +26%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $40 −$12 -30%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $5 $0 +2%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $5 $0 +4%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $129 +$10 +8%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Haiti vs. Scotland: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $4 $0 +13%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $5 +$4 +86%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $1 $0 -3%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $25 +$1 +5%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $91 +$25 +28%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $91 +$3 +4%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $5 +$9 +172%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $82 +$5 +6%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -63%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Rainbow Six Siege: Spacestation Gaming vs Outlast (BO1) - North Americ Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs FaZe Vegas (BO5) - Call of Duty Le Jun 12 $2 +$5 +252%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $15 −$1 -6%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $8 $0 -2%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $32 +$9 +26%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 +$8 +79%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $37 +$1 +2%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $11 $0 +2%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $57 +$14 +25%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $5 $0 -3%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 3.5 Jun 10 $5 $0 -3%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $7 +$2 +25%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $15 +$2 +13%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $100 +$15 +15%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 10 $15 +$3 +17%
Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 09 $1 $0 -3%
Will Fortaleza EC win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $15 −$2 -10%
Will Clube Náutico Capibaribe win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $15 −$6 -38%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 6¢ $1 48m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 15¢ $9 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 14¢ $29 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 10¢ $3 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 9¢ $2 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 8¢ $5 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 10¢ $5 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 13¢ $5 2h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 13¢ $5 2h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 14¢ $2 2h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 14¢ $3 2h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 13¢ $24 2h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 10¢ $5 2h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 10¢ $5 2h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 11¢ $5 2h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 12¢ $2 2h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 12¢ $2 2h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 12¢ $1 2h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 12¢ $0 2h
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 62¢ $11 2h
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 55¢ $2 2h
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 55¢ $3 2h
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 56¢ $5 2h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 30¢ $5 22h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 29¢ $5 22h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Under 67¢ $16 23h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 4¢ $1 23h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 15¢ $15 23h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 1¢ $1 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.35 · official $11.35 (match) · 445 history records