Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:57:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DF 0xdf8b…481e other 168 markets active 6h ago coverage 53d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover
Total PnL −$81 (-3%) realized +$75 · open −$156
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate23%35W / 118L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day19.6pace
Kalshi-fit8%portable
Net worth$198now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$52
7 days−$124
14 days+$140
30 days+$226
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 96% −$333
politics 4% +$51
crypto 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-39.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 75 -40.3% -46.0% 17% 15% -18.6%
≤30d 113 -29.5% -36.3% 22% 19% +1.8%
≤90d 153 -33.0% -39.4% 23% 20% -15.2%
all 153 -33.0% -39.4% 23% 20% -15.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -39.4% 20% -15.2%
10% -45.2% 20% -23.3%
15% -50.5% 18% -30.8%
20% -55.3% 16% -37.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -33% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -27% → late -39% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$10 · ×2.93 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

53d coverage
Net worth$198
Realized+$75
Unrealized−$156
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses35 / 118
Open positions54
Markets (closed)153 / 168
History coverage53d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day19.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit8%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 54 History 153 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $63 $54 −$10 (-15%)
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 9¢ 24¢ $5 $12 +$8 (+169%)
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 9¢ 24¢ $5 $12 +$8 (+169%)
Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 9¢ 22¢ $5 $11 +$7 (+147%)
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $60 $11 −$49 (-82%)
Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 9¢ 22¢ $5 $11 +$6 (+142%)
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 9¢ 21¢ $5 $10 +$6 (+131%)
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 9¢ 19¢ $5 $10 +$5 (+109%)
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 9¢ 18¢ $5 $9 +$5 (+103%)
Will Elon Musk post 800-839 tweets in June 2026? Yes 3¢ 10¢ $3 $8 +$5 (+204%)
Will Elon Musk post 1040-1079 tweets in June 2026? Yes 3¢ 6¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+86%)
Will Donald Trump post 60-79 Truth Social posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 9¢ 10¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+8%)
Will Elon Musk post 1080-1119 tweets in June 2026? Yes 3¢ 5¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+55%)
Will Elon Musk post 1000-1039 tweets in June 2026? Yes 3¢ 5¢ $2 $4 +$1 (+60%)
Will Elon Musk post 1160-1199 tweets in June 2026? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Will Elon Musk post 1200-1239 tweets in June 2026? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $3 $2 −$0 (-6%)
Will Elon Musk post 720-759 tweets in June 2026? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $3 $2 −$0 (-7%)
Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 9¢ 4¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-56%)
Will Elon Musk post 1120-1159 tweets in June 2026? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-23%)
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets in July 2026? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+36%)
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets in July 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-42%)
Will Elon Musk post 1240-1279 tweets in June 2026? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-33%)
Will Elon Musk post 760-799 tweets in June 2026? Yes 3¢ 5¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+52%)
Will Elon Musk post 680-719 tweets in June 2026? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $3 $1 −$1 (-42%)
Will Elon Musk post 1400+ tweets in June 2026? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $3 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Donald Trump post 0-19 Truth Social posts from June 12 to June 19 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $47 −$18 -39%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -132%
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from June 5 to June Jun 12 $1 +$3 +353%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 12 $21 −$1 -4%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 12 $42 +$42 +101%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 12 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? Jun 12 $38 −$8 -22%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? Jun 12 $51 +$27 +54%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $140 +$160 +114%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 12 $66 −$66 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 12 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? Jun 12 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 12 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 12 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 12 $36 −$36 -100%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +138%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 12 $29 −$14 -48%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $183 +$9 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 12 $1 $0 +25%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 12 $58 +$28 +49%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $10 5h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 6h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $3 6h
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 6h
Will Donald Trump post 60-79 Truth Social posts from June 12 to June 1 SELL Yes 18¢ $1 8h
Will Donald Trump post 60-79 Truth Social posts from June 12 to June 1 SELL Yes 18¢ $0 8h
Will Elon Musk post 760-799 tweets in June 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $4 10h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 18h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $6 19h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 19h
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June SELL Yes 20¢ $10 20h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 20h
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 20h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 20h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 21h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 21h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 21h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 21h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 21h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 21h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 21h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 21h
Will Elon Musk post 840-879 tweets in June 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $3 21h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 22h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 22h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 22h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 22h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 22h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 22h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $198.49 · official $197.86 (match) · 1199 history records