Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T03:01:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
DF 0xdf8a…e822 crypto 113 markets active 1h ago coverage 88d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$495 (+1%) realized +$503 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate97%108W / 3L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown72%max
Avg bet$372per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,059now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days+$106
14 days+$229
30 days+$70
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$470
world 0% +$2
sports 0% −$37
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +2.2% -7.5% 100% 0% -7.6%
≤30d 45 +0.3% -9.2% 96% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 111 +1.2% -8.4% 97% 0% -8.5%
all 111 +1.2% -8.4% 97% 0% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.4% 0% -8.5%
10% -17.2% 0% -17.3%
15% -25.2% 0% -25.3%
20% -32.5% 0% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$635) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$168 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.88 per $1 lost it wins $1.88
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

88d coverage
Net worth$1,059
Realized+$503
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses108 / 3
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)111 / 113
History coverage88d
Avg bet$372
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown72%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 111 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 23? Yes 98¢ 97¢ $689 $679 −$11 (-2%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 23? No 97¢ 98¢ $378 $380 +$3 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $519 +$9 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $53 +$2 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $665 +$13 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $660 +$10 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $661 +$11 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $660 +$14 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $654 +$12 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $653 +$14 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $524 +$20 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $527 −$23 -4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $646 +$14 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 12? Jun 12 $531 +$12 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $20 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $513 +$26 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $505 +$25 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $636 +$16 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 9? Jun 10 $506 +$14 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 9? Jun 10 $506 +$16 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 8? Jun 09 $501 +$15 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 8? Jun 09 $633 +$10 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 7? Jun 08 $536 +$11 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 5? Jun 06 $278 +$5 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5? Jun 06 $627 +$12 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 4? Jun 05 $658 +$10 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $563 −$442 -78%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $656 +$19 +3%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 2? Jun 03 $525 +$20 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 1? Jun 02 $212 +$4 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 1? Jun 02 $654 +$5 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in May? Jun 01 $548 +$23 +4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? Jun 01 $693 +$23 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 31? Jun 01 $60 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 31? May 30 $685 +$6 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 29? May 30 $685 +$11 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 28? May 29 $673 +$17 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 28? May 29 $686 +$14 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 27? May 27 $539 +$18 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 27? May 27 $675 +$5 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 27? May 27 $677 +$4 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 25? May 26 $656 +$11 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 25? May 26 $653 +$13 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 25? May 26 $662 +$17 +3%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 24? May 25 $635 +$11 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 24? May 25 $661 +$10 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 23? May 24 $528 +$13 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 21? May 22 $185 +$3 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 21? May 22 $525 +$17 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 21? May 22 $650 +$9 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 20? May 21 $519 +$17 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 18? May 19 $638 +$13 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 98¢ $685 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 23? BUY No 97¢ $281 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 23? BUY No 97¢ $97 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 97¢ $5 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 21? BUY No 98¢ $5 45h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 21? BUY No 98¢ $514 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 20? BUY No 97¢ $53 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 19? BUY No 98¢ $613 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 19? BUY No 98¢ $2 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 19? BUY No 98¢ $2 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 19? BUY No 98¢ $2 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 19? BUY No 98¢ $45 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 18? BUY No 98¢ $167 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 18? BUY No 98¢ $493 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 98¢ $45 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 98¢ $55 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 98¢ $561 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $340 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $320 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $654 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 14? SELL No 94¢ $504 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 96¢ $524 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $653 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $25 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $49 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $98 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $354 9d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 12? BUY Yes 98¢ $531 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? BUY No 95¢ $504 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? BUY No 95¢ $10 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,059.09 · official $1,059.09 (match) · 357 history records