Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T16:37:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
DF 0xdf86…601f sports 856 markets active 2h ago coverage 612d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$9,285 (-7%) realized −$8,757 · open −$528
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate42%353W / 480L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$158per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$44est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$1,201now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$139
7 days+$1,069
14 days+$850
30 days+$404
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 47% +$4,542
politics 36% −$11,956
other 11% −$1,453
world 3% +$270
tech 2% −$256
economics 1% −$296
finance 0% −$170
culture 0% +$65
crypto 0% −$75
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-7.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +86.8% +69.0% 69% 69% +97.9%
≤30d 51 +1.9% -7.8% 41% 37% -0.8%
≤90d 96 -11.8% -20.2% 39% 35% -30.0%
all 833 +2.7% -7.1% 42% 41% -15.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.1% 41% -15.4%
10% -16.0% 40% -23.5%
15% -24.1% 38% -30.9%
20% -31.5% 32% -37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +6% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$99 vs −$91 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

612d coverage
Net worth$1,201
Realized−$8,757
Unrealized−$528
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses353 / 480
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$44
Open positions23
Markets (closed)833 / 856
History coverage612d
Avg bet$158
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 23 History 833 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 67¢ 89¢ $200 $263 +$63 (+31%)
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? Yes 26¢ 36¢ $100 $142 +$42 (+42%)
Will Aryna Sabalenka be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Yes 29¢ 23¢ $175 $139 −$36 (-21%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $125 $124 −$1 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 13¢ $50 $66 +$16 (+32%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $50 $57 +$7 (+15%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-3%)
Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027? Yes 58¢ 52¢ $50 $45 −$5 (-10%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $50 $40 −$10 (-19%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 7¢ $50 $35 −$15 (-31%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 43¢ 42¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-3%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-5%)
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-6%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $19 $23 +$4 (+22%)
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $75 $19 −$56 (-75%)
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? Yes 29¢ 4¢ $100 $15 −$85 (-85%)
Kash Patel out by June 30? Yes 70¢ 4¢ $100 $6 −$94 (-94%)
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Epstein client list released by June 30? Yes 33¢ 1¢ $30 $1 −$29 (-97%)
Will Steve Bannon be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? Yes 33¢ 1¢ $25 $1 −$24 (-96%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Yes 47¢ 0¢ $100 $1 −$99 (-99%)
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 58¢ 0¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 184 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 19 $26 +$21 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $25 +$26 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$8 +29%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $76 +$66 +87%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 17 $25 +$25 +97%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 17 $26 −$25 -97%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? Jun 15 $100 +$55 +54%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $50 −$2 -5%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $253 +$286 +113%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $25 +$19 +76%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 13 $40 +$363 +908%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $102 +$107 +105%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 12 $102 +$148 +144%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be at le Jun 12 $26 −$25 -96%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $52 −$50 -97%
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $104 −$100 -96%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? Jun 07 $76 +$143 +187%
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 06 $41 −$40 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 06 $26 −$23 -90%
Will Maja Chwalińska win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 06 $26 −$25 -96%
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 05 $200 −$112 -56%
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at >$84 in June? Jun 05 $250 +$26 +10%
Will Matteo Arnaldi win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 05 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Jakub Mensik win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 05 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Royal Challengers Bengaluru win the 2026 Indian Premier League? May 31 $152 +$186 +122%
Will Gujarat Titans win the 2026 Indian Premier League? May 31 $127 −$21 -17%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 31 $102 −$78 -77%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 31 $177 −$123 -70%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $51 +$68 +134%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Brandon Nakashima May 31 $177 $0 +0%
Roland Garros ATP: Jaime Faria vs Frances Tiafoe May 31 $25 +$14 +57%
Roland Garros WTA: Coco Gauff vs Anastasia Potapova May 30 $50 −$50 -99%
Roland Garros WTA: Victoria Mboko vs Madison Keys May 30 $51 −$50 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Moise Kouame vs Alejandro Tabilo May 30 $102 −$100 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic May 29 $128 +$595 +465%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 29 $251 +$56 +22%
Will Coco Gauff win the 2026 Roland Garros Women's Singles? May 28 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2026 Roland Garros Women's Singles? May 28 $51 −$50 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo May 28 $101 +$35 +35%
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 28 $530 −$427 -81%
Will Casper Ruud win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? May 28 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Ben Shelton win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? May 28 $24 −$23 -97%
Will Francisco Cerundolo win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? May 28 $26 −$25 -97%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? May 28 $51 −$50 -98%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? May 25 $125 −$125 -100%
Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2026 Women’s French Open? May 25 $102 −$100 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 1h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $46 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET SELL Down 71¢ $33 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $26 36h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 51¢ $51 43h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 43¢ $25 2d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 4¢ $26 2d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 4¢ $26 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 62¢ $25 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 49¢ $25 2d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 9¢ $26 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $25 2d
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY San Francisco Giants 50¢ $25 2d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 40¢ $48 5d
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? BUY Yes 36¢ $51 5d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 30¢ $40 5d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 33¢ $40 5d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 31¢ $41 5d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 37¢ $31 5d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 30¢ $40 5d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 30¢ $40 5d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 37¢ $51 5d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 56¢ $25 5d
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? BUY Yes 65¢ $100 6d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 81¢ $105 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,201.29 · official $1,201.29 (match) · 1962 history records