Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:42:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
DF 0xdf86…8042 sports 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 61d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$38 (-3%) realized −$51 · open +$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate50%2W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$255per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$1,043now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$42
7 days−$42
14 days−$39
30 days−$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% +$13
politics 8% −$42
tech 8% +$2
crypto 1% +$1
other 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-39.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -39.9% -45.6% 0% 0% -45.6%
≤30d 3 -11.3% -19.7% 67% 0% -25.2%
≤90d 4 -33.4% -39.8% 50% 0% -25.9%
all 4 -33.4% -39.8% 50% 0% -25.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -39.8% 0% -25.9%
10% -45.5% 0% -33.0%
15% -50.8% 0% -39.4%
20% -55.6% 0% -45.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 78% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -33% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$22 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

61d coverage
Net worth$1,043
Realized−$51
Unrealized+$13
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses2 / 2
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions1
Markets (closed)4 / 5
History coverage61d
Avg bet$255
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score No 39¢ 40¢ $1,030 $1,043 +$13 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo? Jun 20 $106 −$42 -40%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 13 $104 +$2 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on April 21? Jun 08 $16 +$1 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Apr 20 $2 −$2 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY No 39¢ $1,049 1h
Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo? SELL No 49¢ $64 2h
Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo? BUY No 80¢ $106 7d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 88¢ $106 7d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 86¢ $104 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on April 21? BUY No 96¢ $16 60d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 60d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,043.21 · official $1,043.21 (match) · 8 history records