Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T10:10:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
DF 0xdf82…a983 crypto 50 markets active 1h ago coverage 101d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$119 (+1%) realized +$113 · open +$6
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate100%45W / 0L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$221per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$916now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$9
14 days+$17
30 days+$41
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 36% +$36
crypto 26% +$10
tech 25% +$67
politics 12% +$4
sports 2% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +2.2% -7.5% 100% 0% -7.8%
≤30d 15 +1.2% -8.4% 100% 0% -8.0%
≤90d 45 +1.4% -8.2% 100% 2% -8.5%
all 45 +1.4% -8.2% 100% 2% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.2% 2% -8.5%
10% -17.0% 2% -17.3%
15% -25.0% 0% -25.3%
20% -32.4% 0% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs — no data
Profit factor
no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

101d coverage
Net worth$916
Realized+$113
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses45 / 0
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)45 / 50
History coverage101d
Avg bet$221
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Trump out as President by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $299 $302 +$2 (+1%)
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.00 in June? No 98¢ 99¢ $294 $297 +$3 (+1%)
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close above $1.00 end of June? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $138 $139 +$1 (+1%)
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $1.00-$2.00 on the final day of trading of the week of Jun 15 – Jun 19? No 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Over 99¢ 98¢ $79 $79 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $66 +$4 +6%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $1.00-$2.00 on the final day of trading Jun 12 $137 $0 +0%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $0-$1.00 on the final day of trading of Jun 12 $86 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 09 $195 +$5 +2%
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 1 and June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $147 +$2 +1%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.60 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 05 $213 +$2 +1%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of June 1 above $245? Jun 05 $129 +$3 +2%
Will Zelenskyy post 160-179 posts from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $31 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy post 120-139 posts from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $71 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.80 on June 4? Jun 04 $149 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy post 20-39 posts from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 03 $104 +$1 +1%
Will Ethena reach $0.16 in May? Jun 01 $100 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 May 31 $787 +$23 +3%
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (HIGH) $8.00 in May? May 30 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at >$9.00 on the final day of trading of th May 22 $100 $0 +0%
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of May 11 above $140? May 15 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the price of XRP be above $0.90 on May 14? May 14 $332 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 14 $450 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026? May 13 $439 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,100 May 4-10? May 11 $338 $0 +0%
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (HIGH) $7.00 Week of May 4 May 09 $530 +$16 +3%
Will XRP reach $1.90 April 27-May 3? May 04 $306 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.00 and $1.10 on May 2? May 02 $260 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.60 and $1.70 on May 2? May 02 $300 $0 +0%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $8.00-$9.00 on the final day of trading May 02 $865 +$1 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April May 01 $852 +$15 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Apr 15 $46 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from April 7 to April 1 Apr 15 $803 +$2 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 April 6-12? Apr 13 $10 $0 +2%
Will XRP dip to $0.70 April 6-12? Apr 13 $16 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 April 6-12? Apr 13 $40 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 April 6-12? Apr 13 $40 $0 +1%
Will Solana reach $130 April 6-12? Apr 13 $50 $0 +1%
Will XRP reach $1.80 April 6-12? Apr 13 $80 +$1 +1%
Will XRP reach $1.90 April 6-12? Apr 13 $99 +$1 +1%
Will XRP dip to $0.80 April 6-12? Apr 13 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 April 6-12? Apr 13 $185 +$2 +1%
Will Solana reach $120 April 6-12? Apr 13 $223 +$1 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 60-79 Truth Social posts from April 7 to April Apr 12 $137 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from April 3 to Apri Apr 11 $80 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.70 and $1.80 on April 10? Apr 11 $86 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be less than $0.80 on April 9? Apr 10 $80 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be less than $0.90 on April 8? Apr 09 $79 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Apr 06 $795 +$24 +3%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 17 $6 +$1 +25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 99¢ $79 46m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $66 2d
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close above $1.00 end of June? BUY Yes 99¢ $138 2d
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.00 in June? BUY No 98¢ $294 2d
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $1.00-$2.00 on the final day of trading BUY No 100¢ $100 2d
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $1.00-$2.00 on the final day of trading BUY No 100¢ $137 8d
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $0-$1.00 on the final day of trading of BUY No 100¢ $86 8d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $195 8d
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 1 and June 7, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $147 10d
Will Zelenskyy post 120-139 posts from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $71 12d
Will Zelenskyy post 160-179 posts from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $31 12d
Will Zelenskyy post 20-39 posts from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $6 12d
Will Zelenskyy post 20-39 posts from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $98 13d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of June 1 above $245? BUY No 98¢ $129 13d
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.60 Week of June 1 2026? BUY No 99¢ $213 14d
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $255 14d
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $44 14d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.80 on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $149 14d
Will Ethena reach $0.16 in May? BUY No 100¢ $100 16d
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (HIGH) $8.00 in May? BUY No 99¢ $99 23d
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at >$9.00 on the final day of trading of th BUY No 100¢ $100 30d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 BUY Yes 97¢ $640 31d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 BUY Yes 97¢ $80 31d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 BUY Yes 97¢ $31 31d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 BUY Yes 97¢ $21 31d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 BUY Yes 97¢ $15 31d
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $450 32d
Will the price of XRP be above $0.90 on May 14? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 34d
Will the price of XRP be above $0.90 on May 14? BUY Yes 100¢ $232 34d
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $439 36d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $915.81 · official $915.81 (match) · 118 history records