Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T08:46:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
DF 0xdf82…5236 crypto 57 markets active 1h ago coverage 564d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$16 (-0%) realized −$16 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate77%43W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$117per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% −$15
crypto 8% +$1
other 2% +$3
tech 2% $0
politics 1% −$3
economics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 6 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.0%
all 56 -1.5% -10.8% 77% 4% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 4% -9.8%
10% -19.4% 0% -18.4%
15% -27.2% 0% -26.3%
20% -34.3% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 76% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% too few recent
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.35 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

564d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses43 / 13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)56 / 57
History coverage564d
Avg bet$117
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 56 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $44 $44 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Hyperliquid dip to $28 in May? Jun 02 $35 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in April? May 05 $4 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $30 in April? May 05 $14 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in April? May 05 $32 +$1 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in March? Apr 01 $10 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in March? Apr 01 $30 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? Mar 04 $8 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in February? Mar 04 $11 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $190 in February? Mar 04 $25 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.00 in January? Feb 02 $3 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid hit $46 in January? Feb 02 $9 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,600 in January? Feb 02 $39 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,200 in December? Jan 02 $4 $0 +0%
Will BNB dip to $500 in December? Jan 02 $19 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Jan 02 $26 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $230 in November? Dec 03 $11 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? Dec 03 $37 $0 +0%
Will Google have the best AI model on October 31? Nov 04 $17 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $5600 in October? Nov 04 $29 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130K in September? Oct 03 $5 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.00 in September? Oct 03 $14 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $2.00 in September? Oct 03 $27 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $2.30 in August? Sep 02 $13 $0 +0%
Will Google have the top AI model on August 31? Sep 02 $22 $0 +1%
Will Solana dip to $120 in July? Aug 02 $7 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in July? Aug 02 $35 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in June? Jul 04 $8 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3500 in May? Jun 20 $2 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $85k in May? Jun 20 $3 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in May? Jun 20 $5 $0 +0%
U.S. recession before May 2025? May 04 $3 $0 +0%
Will ETH hard fork before May? May 04 $3 $0 +0%
Will TikTok be banned again before May? May 04 $4 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50k in April? May 04 $5 $0 +0%
TikTok sale announced before May? May 04 $7 $0 +1%
Will the Dallas Mavericks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 11 $5,592 −$6 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 again by March 31? Apr 01 $9 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.10 in March? Apr 01 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin all time high by March 31? Apr 01 $12 $0 +0%
Will Google have the top AI model on February 28? Mar 08 $16 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $120 by February 28 2025? Mar 08 $17 +$4 +22%
Will $Trump FDV be $15-20b on Feb 1? Feb 05 $12 $0 +2%
Will Solana dip to $160 by January 31, 2025? Feb 05 $12 $0 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 75+ bps after January 2025 meeting? Jan 21 $4 −$2 -50%
Will the Chiefs win Super Bowl 2025? Jan 07 $20 $0 -1%
Liverpool wins the Premier League? Jan 07 $98 −$1 -2%
Will Bitcoin hit $100k by Sunday? Dec 21 $28 −$4 -15%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? Dec 20 $89 −$2 -2%
Will the Boston Celtics win the Eastern Conference? Dec 20 $18 $0 -2%
Will the SPD win 15-20% of the vote in the German election? Dec 19 $31 −$1 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $44 1h
Will Hyperliquid dip to $28 in May? BUY No 100¢ $35 31d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $4 61d
Will Solana dip to $30 in April? BUY No 100¢ $14 63d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in April? BUY No 98¢ $32 63d
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in March? BUY No 100¢ $10 91d
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in March? BUY No 100¢ $30 92d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? BUY No 100¢ $8 121d
Will XRP reach $3.00 in February? BUY No 100¢ $11 121d
Will Solana reach $190 in February? BUY No 100¢ $25 123d
Will XRP reach $4.00 in January? BUY No 100¢ $3 149d
Will Hyperliquid hit $46 in January? BUY No 100¢ $9 150d
Will Ethereum reach $4,600 in January? BUY No 100¢ $39 150d
Will Ethereum reach $4,200 in December? BUY No 100¢ $4 181d
Will BNB dip to $500 in December? BUY No 100¢ $19 181d
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? BUY No 100¢ $26 182d
Will Solana reach $230 in November? BUY No 100¢ $11 211d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? BUY No 100¢ $37 212d
Will Ethereum reach $5600 in October? BUY No 100¢ $5 241d
Will Google have the best AI model on October 31? BUY Yes 99¢ $17 241d
Will Ethereum reach $5600 in October? BUY No 100¢ $24 242d
Will Bitcoin reach $130K in September? BUY No 100¢ $5 272d
Will XRP reach $4.00 in September? BUY No 100¢ $14 272d
Will XRP dip to $2.00 in September? BUY No 100¢ $27 274d
Will XRP dip to $2.30 in August? BUY No 100¢ $13 302d
Will Google have the top AI model on August 31? BUY Yes 99¢ $22 303d
Will Solana dip to $120 in July? BUY No 100¢ $7 333d
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in July? BUY No 100¢ $35 335d
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in June? BUY No 100¢ $8 365d
Will Bitcoin dip to $85k in May? BUY No 100¢ $3 393d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.64 · official $43.64 (match) · 123 history records