Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:50:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DF 0xdf81…cc6f other 236 markets active 1h ago coverage 128d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$71 (-0%) realized −$71 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate3%6W / 230L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$207per market
Trades / day10.3pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$16
14 days−$28
30 days−$41
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$37
sports 23% −$19
politics 8% −$9
culture 7% −$7
crypto 7% −$5
economics 6% −$4
world 3% −$1
tech 2% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 80 -0.2% -9.7% 1% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 180 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
all 236 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

128d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$71
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses6 / 230
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)236 / 236
History coverage128d
Avg bet$207
Trades / day10.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 236 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 18 $404 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $508 −$1 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 17 $342 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $342 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 17 $159 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $265 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $48 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $606 −$1 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $111 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $721 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $335 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $402 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $560 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $329 −$1 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $337 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 14 $692 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $341 −$1 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $462 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $204 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $566 −$1 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $133 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $237 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $100 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $340 −$1 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $444 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $103 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $139 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $437 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $262 −$1 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $196 $0 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 10 $254 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $640 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $188 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 09 $657 −$2 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 08 $227 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $345 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $108 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $53 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $197 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $166 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $884 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $332 $0 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 06 $247 $0 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 06 $53 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $261 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $194 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $167 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $206 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $54 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $292 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $47 1h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $47 2h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $47 4h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $47 6h
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $47 8h
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $47 10h
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $47 14h
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $47 16h
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? SELL No 99¢ $47 16h
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? BUY No 100¢ $48 17h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $48 20h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $48 22h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $48 23h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $48 24h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $48 26h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $48 27h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $48 29h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $48 31h
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $48 38h
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $48 39h
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $48 45h
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $48 47h
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $48 2d
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $48 2d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $48 2d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $48 2d
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $48 2d
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $49 2d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $49 2d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $49 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1362 history records