Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:50:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DF 0xdf80…3259 sports 123 markets active 2h ago coverage 17d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 17d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (191 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)
Total PnL +$86,683 (+9%) realized +$87,114 · open −$431
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +74% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +21% what you keep after slip
Net edge+21%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate49%86W / 89L
Whale WR59%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8,165per market
Trades / day191.3pace
Fees−$3,786est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$5,033now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 17d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% +$18,724
sports 48% +$30,115
crypto 2% −$798
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (191 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)+57.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 124 +45.3% +31.5% 39% 20% -10.9%
≤30d 175 +74.1% +57.5% 49% 23% -10.5%
≤90d 175 +74.1% +57.5% 49% 23% -10.5%
all 175 +74.1% +57.5% 49% 23% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover191.3 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +57.5% 23% -10.5%
10% +42.5% 21% -19.1%
15% ← realistic here +28.7% 17% -26.9%
20% +16.1% 14% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
52% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +74% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 59% (≥$5,599) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +78% → late +70% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
26.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,184 vs −$1,193 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$5,033
Realized+$87,114
Unrealized−$431
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses86 / 89
Whale WR (big bets)59%
Est. fees paid−$3,786
Open positions1
Markets (closed)175 / 123
History coverage17d ⚠
Avg bet$8,165
Trades / day191.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 175 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Yes 93¢ 86¢ $5,464 $5,033 −$431 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 79 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Fight Night: Dooho Choi vs. Daniel Santos (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 17 $7,818 −$8,422 -108%
SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? Jun 17 $463 −$3,598 -776%
Will Elche CF win on 2026-05-23? Jun 17 $429 −$429 -100%
Will Club Olimpia win on 2026-05-20? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Parma Calcio 1913 win on 2026-05-10? Jun 17 $5,333 −$5,333 -100%
Will CS Independiente Rivadavia win on 2026-05-06? Jun 17 $130 +$3,224 +2487%
1. FC Nürnberg vs. FC Schalke 04: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-05-13? Jun 17 $166 −$3,077 -1850%
Will CD Universidad Católica win on 2026-05-06? Jun 17 $107 −$107 -100%
SC Corinthians Paulista vs. CA Platense: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $267 −$267 -100%
RB Leipzig vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5) Jun 17 $10,409 −$10,409 -100%
CA Barracas Central vs. Club Olimpia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $41 −$41 -100%
VfL Wolfsburg vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $3,487 −$3,487 -100%
1. FC Nürnberg vs. FC Schalke 04: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $3,543 −$3,543 -100%
Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-09? Jun 17 $758 −$373 -49%
SS Lazio vs. FC Internazionale Milano: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will AVS Futebol win on 2026-05-10? Jun 17 $2,521 −$2,521 -100%
Will Pumas de la UNAM win on 2026-05-24? Jun 17 $74 −$74 -100%
Racing Club vs. Caracas FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $208 −$208 -100%
Will Racing Club win on 2026-05-21? Jun 17 $4,770 −$4,798 -101%
Club Blooming vs. Carabobo FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $708 −$708 -100%
Will New York Red Bulls win on 2026-05-16? Jun 17 $2,735 −$2,567 -94%
Qingdao Xihaian FC vs. Wuhan San Zhen FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will San Diego FC win on 2026-05-16? Jun 17 $262 −$262 -100%
Will Levante UD win on 2026-05-12? Jun 17 $7 +$101 +1440%
Fluminense FC vs. São Paulo FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $226 −$224 -99%
FC Bayern München vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Will São Paulo FC win on 2026-05-19? Jun 17 $146 +$1,288 +879%
Will SC Braga win on 2026-05-11? Jun 17 $694 −$728 -105%
Will Fluminense FC win on 2026-05-16? Jun 17 $55 −$42 -76%
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-05-24? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Fluminense FC win on 2026-05-06? Jun 17 $29 −$29 -100%
Will Cruzeiro EC win on 2026-05-16? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Leeds United FC end in a draw? Jun 17 $129 −$110 -85%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Santos FC win on 2026-05-20? Jun 17 $12 +$1,770 +15363%
Will AS Roma win on 2026-05-10? Jun 17 $1,972 −$1,874 -95%
Will CA Barracas Central win on 2026-05-06? Jun 17 $1,864 −$1,864 -100%
Will Red Bull Bragantino win on 2026-05-17? Jun 17 $77 −$77 -100%
Will CA Rosario Central win on 2026-05-13? Jun 17 $1 +$4,094 +603966%
Will Grêmio FBPA win on 2026-05-17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? Jun 17 $2 +$1,376 +57272%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $639 −$639 -100%
Will New York City FC win on 2026-05-16? Jun 17 $1,085 −$1,072 -99%
Will Botafogo FR win on 2026-05-27? Jun 17 $4,038 −$4,038 -100%
Will LDU de Quito win on 2026-05-26? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage Jun 17 $2,095 −$2,095 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $5,749 2h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $3,039 2h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $52 2h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $5 2h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $298 2h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $6 2h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $1 2h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $1 2h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $115 2h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $19 2h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $8,468 2h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 1¢ $103 2h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 17¢ $3 2h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 17¢ $20 2h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 17¢ $3 2h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 17¢ $2 2h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 17¢ $0 2h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 17¢ $1 2h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 17¢ $21 2h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 17¢ $6 2h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 17¢ $68 2h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 17¢ $34 2h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 17¢ $34 2h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 17¢ $34 2h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 17¢ $0 2h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 17¢ $1 2h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 17¢ $1 2h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 17¢ $1 2h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 17¢ $34 2h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 17¢ $34 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,033.25 · official $5,033.25 (match) · 3500 history records