Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:39:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DF 0xdf7f…0fbd world 36 markets active 1h ago coverage 447d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$4 (-1%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate40%14W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 71% −$2
other 18% −$4
politics 9% +$1
crypto 1% $0
sports 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 12 -0.4% -9.9% 8% 8% -9.8%
≤90d 12 -0.4% -9.9% 8% 8% -9.8%
all 35 -3.6% -12.8% 40% 3% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.8% 3% -10.1%
10% -21.1% 0% -18.7%
15% -28.7% 0% -26.6%
20% -35.7% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.23 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

447d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses14 / 21
Open positions1
Markets (closed)35 / 36
History coverage447d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 90¢ 90¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 08 $73 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 07 $44 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $85 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $43 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $73 −$1 -1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 04 $40 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $44 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $8 −$1 -10%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 28 $41 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $3 $0 -8%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 26 $61 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 25 $34 $0 -1%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran before July? Dec 14 $1 $0 +2%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 16 $1 $0 +0%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by less than 25,000 betw Jun 27 $3 −$1 -35%
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president before July? Jun 26 $5 $0 +4%
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before June? Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump issue a Gold Card before June? Jun 02 $5 $0 +2%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 30 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 21 $1 $0 +4%
Will Denmark finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 5? May 17 $7 −$1 -8%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? May 17 $7 $0 -0%
Will the Knicks beat the Celtics 4-3 May 16 $7 $0 -0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 16 $2 $0 +3%
Will Pedro Nuno Santos be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after th May 16 $16 $0 -1%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? May 15 $8 $0 +2%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? May 12 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 11 $8 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3500 in May? May 10 $8 $0 -1%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec May 09 $8 $0 -0%
Will Edi Rama be the next Prime Minister of Albania after the 2025 ele May 09 $8 $0 +1%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? May 08 $8 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? May 07 $8 $0 +0%
Will Elena Lasconi advance to the Romanian Presidential Election Runof May 07 $9 $0 +4%
Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on March 26? Mar 28 $11 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $40 1h
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $43 9d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $43 9d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $43 10d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $43 10d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 10d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 10d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 10d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 79¢ $43 11d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 79¢ $43 11d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $39 11d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $34 11d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $6 11d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $34 11d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $34 11d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $7 12d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $4 12d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $29 12d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $40 12d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 12d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 12d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $44 12d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $44 12d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $11 13d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $29 13d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 55¢ $20 13d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 55¢ $19 13d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 95¢ $5 18d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 94¢ $39 18d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 94¢ $44 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.40 · official $39.60 (match) · 101 history records