Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T06:40:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DF 0xdf7f…bd36 other 55 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$36 (+2%) realized +$36 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%24W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day13.8pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 58% +$196
sports 23% −$205
crypto 17% +$69
world 2% −$30
politics 1% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-19.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 54 -10.5% -19.0% 44% 44% -8.3%
≤30d 54 -10.5% -19.0% 44% 44% -8.3%
≤90d 54 -10.5% -19.0% 44% 44% -8.3%
all 54 -10.5% -19.0% 44% 44% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.0% 44% -8.3%
10% -26.8% 41% -17.0%
15% -33.8% 41% -25.0%
20% -40.3% 28% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 45% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late -33% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$24 · ×1.29 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized+$36
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses24 / 30
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)54 / 55
History coverage6d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day13.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 54 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 66¢ 65¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 25 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 25 $16 +$7 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 25 $15 +$13 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 25 $36 −$5 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 25 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 25 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 25 $25 +$9 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -96%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $57 +$45 +79%
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 2 Mexico? Jun 25 $15 −$15 -98%
Korea Republic to score first vs. South Africa? Jun 25 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 24 $56 −$55 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $25 +$34 +134%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $30 +$16 +54%
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 24 $41 −$32 -77%
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 24 $26 +$20 +78%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $30 +$16 +52%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $35 +$17 +48%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 23 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $50 +$23 +46%
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 1 Egypt? Jun 22 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -96%
Cabo Verde leading at halftime? Jun 21 $101 −$100 -99%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Team to Take First Corner Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 21 $21 −$20 -97%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $15 +$7 +46%
Saudi Arabia leading at halftime? Jun 21 $10 −$1 -9%
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 21 $72 −$47 -66%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $41 −$40 -97%
Curaçao to score first vs. Ecuador? Jun 21 $61 −$60 -98%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Team to Take First Corner Jun 20 $31 −$30 -98%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $24 −$24 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $32 +$17 +52%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $126 +$90 +71%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $37 −$36 -98%
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $51 +$240 +469%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 +$17 +82%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $20 +$8 +40%
Paraguay to score first vs. Türkiye? Jun 20 $10 +$18 +172%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $11 +$44 +388%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $25 +$5 +21%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Team to Take First Corner Jun 19 $6 −$6 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $20 +$13 +62%
United States to score first vs. Australia? Jun 19 $25 +$12 +46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 66¢ $51 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET SELL Up 61¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET SELL Up 64¢ $22 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $28 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET SELL Up 53¢ $28 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET SELL Up 81¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $25 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 3h
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 2 Mexico? BUY Yes 40¢ $15 4h
Korea Republic to score first vs. South Africa? BUY Yes 65¢ $20 6h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 55¢ $57 6h
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 43¢ $56 7h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $59 9h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $47 26h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 42¢ $25 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.51 · official $49.51 (match) · 98 history records