Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T11:13:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5

score

DF 0xdf7f…b402 crypto 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 42d

RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$30 (-62%) realized −$30 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip

Net edge-29%after slip

Net WR20%break-even

Win rate60%3W / 2L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$8per market

Trades / day0.2pace

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 42d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +20%

net ROI/market (all)-28.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	3	-31.6%	-38.1%	67%	0%	-87.2%
≤30d	3	-31.6%	-38.1%	67%	0%	-87.2%
≤90d	5	-21.1%	-28.6%	60%	20%	-71.9%
all	5	-21.1%	-28.6%	60%	20%	-71.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.2 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-28.6%	20%	-71.9%
10%	-35.4%	20%	-74.6%
15%	-41.7%	20%	-77.1%
20%	-47.4%	20%	-79.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 98% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -69% too few recent

Fragile wins

67% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -21% · $-wt -69% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$2 vs −$18 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.13 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

42d coverage

Net worth$2

Realized−$30

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)60%

Wins / losses3 / 2

Open positions1

Markets (closed)5 / 6

History coverage42d

Avg bet$8

Trades / day0.2

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 5 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET	Up	81¢	72¢	$2	$2	−$0 (-12%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET	Jun 16	$2	$0	+5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET	Jun 16	$2	$0	+0%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Jun 16	$27	−$25	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET	May 05	$5	+$5	+89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET	May 05	$11	−$11	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET	BUY Up	81¢	$2	55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET	BUY Down	95¢	$2	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET	BUY Down	100¢	$2	1h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	BUY Down	13¢	$27	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET	BUY Up	51¢	$5	42d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET	BUY Up	8¢	$5	42d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET	BUY Up	9¢	$5	42d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.77 · official $1.77 (match) · 13 history records