Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T08:36:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
DF 0xdf7b…314d politics 191 markets active 0h ago coverage 143d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$2,070 (+1%) realized +$2,070 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate22%42W / 149L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown78%max
Avg bet$1,592per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$25est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$13
14 days+$70
30 days+$188
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 43% −$165
other 35% −$72
sports 11% +$2,254
culture 4% −$16
economics 3% −$10
world 2% −$5
crypto 1% +$4
tech 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-5.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.1% -9.6% 14% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 55 +8.2% -2.1% 15% 11% -9.3%
≤90d 132 -1.3% -10.7% 10% 8% -8.9%
all 191 +4.2% -5.7% 22% 11% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.7% 11% -8.9%
10% -14.7% 11% -17.6%
15% -23.0% 9% -25.6%
20% -30.5% 9% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 72% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$2,065) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +2% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$96 vs −$14 · ×6.95 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.97 per $1 lost it wins $1.97
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

143d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2,070
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses42 / 149
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions0
Markets (closed)191 / 191
History coverage143d
Avg bet$1,592
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown78%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 191 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $1,451 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $207 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 16 $1,579 −$2 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $3,268 −$4 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $1,686 −$3 -0%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $170 +$1 +0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $1,676 −$3 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $1,570 −$3 -0%
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $1,643 −$3 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $2,825 −$4 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $3,079 −$5 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 10 $1,542 −$2 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $3,197 −$5 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $1,533 −$2 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 08 $1,382 −$2 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $2,169 −$3 -0%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 06 $85 +$58 +67%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $4,834 −$7 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $4,174 −$5 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 05 $2,963 −$4 -0%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 04 $52 +$75 +146%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $2,781 −$4 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 04 $1,576 −$3 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $2,991 −$5 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $1,510 −$2 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $1,627 −$2 -0%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 03 $58 +$78 +134%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $4,261 −$6 -0%
Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 02 $37 −$37 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? Jun 01 $822 +$5 +1%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 01 $1,049 −$2 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $1,059 −$2 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 31 $1,383 −$2 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 30 $1,286 −$2 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $3,513 −$6 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 30 $931 −$1 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 30 $2,917 −$5 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 29 $1,034 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 29 $1,119 −$2 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 29 $1,128 −$1 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $5,258 −$6 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $1,097 −$2 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $2,193 −$3 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $1,883 −$3 -0%
Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs May 24 $68 +$99 +146%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $4,128 −$6 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $1,925 −$2 -0%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-05-24? May 23 $73 +$54 +73%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $1,241 −$2 -0%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $79 −$79 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $240 12m
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $240 1h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $206 3h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $207 5h
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,577 2d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,579 2d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,571 2d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,573 2d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,684 4d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,686 5d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,673 5d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,676 5d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,567 7d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,570 7d
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,641 7d
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,643 7d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,651 7d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,653 8d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,546 8d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,548 8d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1,540 8d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,542 8d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,598 8d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,600 8d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,209 8d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,211 9d
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $170 9d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,530 10d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,533 10d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,380 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 628 history records