Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:30:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
DF 0xdf75…29c6 world 123 markets active 2h ago coverage 972d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$5,124 (-8%) realized −$5,019 · open −$105
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate69%83W / 37L
Whale WR77%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$502per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$1,805now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$120
30 days+$994
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 64% +$735
other 23% −$6,783
crypto 9% +$451
sports 3% +$336
politics 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 4 +9.8% -0.7% 75% 75% +15.1%
≤90d 28 +3.6% -6.2% 75% 75% -0.2%
all 120 -3.8% -12.9% 69% 46% -17.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 46% -17.3%
10% -21.3% 31% -25.2%
15% -28.9% 24% -32.5%
20% -35.8% 13% -39.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
34% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 77% (≥$740) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$140 vs −$453 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

972d coverage
Net worth$1,805
Realized−$5,019
Unrealized−$105
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses83 / 37
Whale WR (big bets)77%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)120 / 123
History coverage972d
Avg bet$502
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 120 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $900 $850 −$50 (-6%)
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? No 80¢ 84¢ $800 $845 +$45 (+6%)
Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027? Yes 21¢ 11¢ $210 $110 −$100 (-48%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 15 $620 +$330 +53%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $450 −$450 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $1,257 +$519 +41%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? May 30 $1,332 +$595 +45%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 12 $820 +$160 +20%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31? May 08 $256 +$39 +15%
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31? May 08 $570 +$374 +66%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 06 $960 −$960 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026? May 04 $240 −$235 -98%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? May 01 $49 +$9 +18%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st? May 01 $710 −$710 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 29 $740 +$249 +34%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 26 $927 +$470 +51%
US announces military support of Kurds in Iran by April 30? Apr 26 $810 +$167 +21%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 24 $770 +$227 +30%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 21 $988 +$370 +38%
Military action against Iran continues through April 30, 2026? Apr 16 $610 −$610 -100%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? Apr 14 $810 +$178 +22%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Apr 09 $800 −$800 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Apr 08 $670 −$670 -100%
Will Russia capture Lyman by April 30, 2026? Apr 07 $203 +$89 +44%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 05 $1,230 +$802 +65%
Houthi strike on Israel by March 31, 2026? Apr 03 $1,426 +$564 +40%
US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? Apr 02 $232 +$103 +44%
US/Israel strike Yemen by March 31? Apr 02 $962 +$753 +78%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st? Mar 30 $825 +$161 +20%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31? Mar 28 $710 +$275 +39%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by March 31? Mar 28 $810 +$150 +18%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Mar 21 $43 +$8 +20%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? Mar 21 $1,535 +$5 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $3800 in October? Mar 18 $35 −$35 -100%
Israel strikes Yemen by August 31? Mar 18 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $3,200 in November? Mar 18 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $4800 in September? Mar 18 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Solana dip to $110 in January? Mar 18 $75 −$75 -100%
Another Israel strike on Yemen by July 31? Mar 18 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in January? Mar 18 $121 −$121 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $116,000 October 6-12? Mar 18 $29 −$29 -100%
Will Solana dip to $130 in November? Mar 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Houthi strike on Israel by March 15, 2026? Mar 16 $2,096 +$1,065 +51%
Will Israel's Ben Gurion Airport reopen by March 15? Mar 09 $775 +$225 +29%
Will Iran strike Israel on March 6? Mar 09 $519 +$580 +112%
Lighter Airdrop on December 30? Dec 30 $60 +$140 +233%
Lighter Airdrop on December 29? Dec 30 $100 +$69 +70%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Dec 27 $122 +$61 +50%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? Dec 27 $100 +$52 +52%
Will Solana dip to $120 in November? Dec 01 $32 +$7 +22%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90k in October? Nov 04 $21 +$1 +6%
Will Solana dip to $190 September 29-October 5? Oct 08 $52 +$12 +24%
Linea airdrop in Q3 2025? Aug 18 $1,677 +$201 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $900 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $1 8d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $74 8d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $5 8d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $6 8d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $5 8d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $6 8d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $6 8d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $6 8d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $6 8d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $7 8d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $6 8d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $6 8d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $6 8d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $6 8d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $5 8d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $7 8d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $7 8d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $6 8d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $5 8d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $6 8d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $6 8d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $3 8d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $5 8d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $7 8d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $5 8d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $6 8d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $6 8d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $5 8d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $2 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,805.00 · official $1,805.00 (match) · 740 history records