Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:27:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DF 0xdf73…d74f crypto 12 markets active 3d ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$18 (-8%) realized −$18 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate50%6W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day19.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 55% −$34
sports 45% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-29.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -22.0% -29.4% 50% 42% -22.6%
≤30d 12 -22.0% -29.4% 50% 42% -22.6%
≤90d 12 -22.0% -29.4% 50% 42% -22.6%
all 12 -22.0% -29.4% 50% 42% -22.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.4% 42% -22.6%
10% -36.2% 17% -30.0%
15% -42.4% 8% -36.8%
20% -48.0% 0% -43.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 61% · top 2 82% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -29% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$8 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses6 / 6
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)12 / 12
History coverage3d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day19.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 12 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $63 −$9 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 11 $6 −$2 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 11 $7 −$2 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 11 $74 −$26 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 11 $16 +$3 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +12%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $43 +$10 +23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 86¢ $17 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 20¢ $17 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 28¢ $10 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $10 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $9 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 33¢ $9 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 28¢ $8 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Spurs 65¢ $8 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 64¢ $8 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET SELL Down 34¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET SELL Down 46¢ $7 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET SELL Up 25¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET SELL Down 72¢ $6 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET SELL Down 38¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET SELL Down 42¢ $0 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET SELL Down 64¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET SELL Down 65¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET SELL Up 21¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 63 history records