Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T23:10:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DF 0xdf73…51a3 crypto 597 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$88 (+1%) realized −$1,019 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate87%574W / 87L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day417.6pace
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,032
7 days−$1,025
14 days−$1,019
30 days−$1,019
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 91% −$14
other 9% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-18.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 651 -10.1% -18.7% 87% 1% -20.3%
≤30d 661 -9.8% -18.4% 87% 1% -20.1%
≤90d 661 -9.8% -18.4% 87% 1% -20.1%
all 661 -9.8% -18.4% 87% 1% -20.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover417.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.4% 1% -20.1%
10% ← realistic here -26.2% 0% -27.8%
15% -33.4% 0% -34.8%
20% -39.9% 0% -41.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -20% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$15 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.21 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,019
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses574 / 87
Open positions0
Markets (closed)661 / 597
History coverage7d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day417.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 661 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Down 92¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Down 98¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
BNB Up or Down - May 26, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Down 99¢ 0¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Down 95¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Down 98¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - May 10, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Up 99¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - March 19, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Down 85¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - May 29, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Up 96¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - May 4, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Down 84¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Up 91¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Down 90¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - May 6, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Down 96¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - June 8, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Up 97¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - March 22, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Down 96¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Down 90¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - May 13, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Down 95¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 8, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Up 95¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Down 89¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - April 2, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Up 99¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Down 95¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - May 3, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Up 99¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - March 29, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Down 98¢ 0¢ $49 $0 −$49 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - May 31, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Down 99¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - May 14, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Down 99¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - May 2, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Up 99¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 26, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $22 −$22 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 10, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 19, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 29, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 4, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 6, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 14 $25 −$25 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 22, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 13, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 2, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 14 $16 −$16 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 3, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 29, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $49 −$49 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 31, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 14, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 2, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 6, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 11, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 30, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 22, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $30 −$30 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 7, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 14 $25 −$25 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 25, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 14 $40 −$40 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 10, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 1, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 14, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 1, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 14, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 28, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 14 $25 −$25 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 28, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 14 $25 −$25 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 29, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 4, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 24, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 2, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 2, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 1, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 31, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 17, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 19, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 14 $40 −$40 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 26, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 23, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 14, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $2 32m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $2 32m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $2 32m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $2 32m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $2 32m
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $2 47m
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $2 47m
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $2 47m
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $2 47m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 56m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 56m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 56m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 56m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 56m
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $2 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $2 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $2 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $2 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $2 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $2 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $2 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $2 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $2 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records