Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:05:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DF 0xdf71…b1d2 weather 576 markets active 1h ago coverage 38d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 38d only
✗ bot/MM pace (76 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2,202 (+0%) realized +$2,202 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate99%570W / 6L
Whale WR99%big bets
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$913per market
Trades / day75.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$19
14 days+$83
30 days+$321
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 95% +$1,687
other 4% +$48
world 1% +$24
tech 0% −$8
sports 0% +$2
culture 0% +$2
politics 0% +$1
economics 0% +$1
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (76 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 81 +0.1% -9.4% 99% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 373 +0.1% -9.4% 99% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 576 +0.4% -9.2% 99% 0% -9.2%
all 576 +0.4% -9.2% 99% 0% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover75.9 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.2% 0% -9.2%
10% -17.8% 0% -17.9%
15% ← realistic here -25.8% 0% -25.8%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 65% · top 2 66% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 99% (≥$1,004) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
5.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.78 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×203.3 per $1 lost it wins $203.3
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

38d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2,202
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses570 / 6
Whale WR (big bets)99%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)576 / 576
History coverage38d ⚠
Avg bet$913
Trades / day75.9
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 576 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on June 17? Jun 17 $581 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 17? Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 17? Jun 17 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 17? Jun 17 $152 $0 +0%
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $295 on June 17? Jun 17 $95 $0 +0%
Will Meta (META) close above $570 on June 17? Jun 17 $89 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 17? Jun 17 $295 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 17? Jun 17 $58 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Brazil" during G7 events? Jun 17 $403 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $35 $0 +0%
Will USD fall to 1.7M Iranian rials by June 30? Jun 17 $910 +$1 +0%
Will USD fall to 1.6M Iranian rials by June 30? Jun 17 $325 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $4 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 16? Jun 16 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 16? Jun 16 $23 $0 +0%
Will "Sweet Magnolias: Season 5" be the top US Netflix show this week? Jun 16 $52 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 44°C on June 16? Jun 16 $802 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $697 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 16? Jun 16 $369 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 16 $3 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on June 15? Jun 16 $368 $0 +0%
Will Paramount+ be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 15? Jun 15 $315 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 14? Jun 15 $13 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 14? Jun 15 $146 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 14? Jun 15 $181 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 14? Jun 14 $114 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 14? Jun 14 $381 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 14? Jun 14 $3 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 14? Jun 14 $43 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 14? Jun 14 $249 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 14? Jun 14 $125 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $566 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 13? Jun 14 $4 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 13? Jun 13 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 13? Jun 13 $75 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $206 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 13? Jun 13 $149 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 12? Jun 13 $71 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 12? Jun 13 $152 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 12? Jun 13 $219 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 12? Jun 13 $301 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 12? Jun 12 $854 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $34 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 22 be betwe Jun 12 $301 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 22 be less Jun 12 $108 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $85 35m
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $85 35m
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $85 35m
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $85 35m
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $85 35m
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $80 35m
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 36m
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $69 37m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $10 58m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $7 59m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $152 1h
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $295 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $95 1h
Will Meta (META) close above $570 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $89 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $25 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $15 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $45 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $40 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $85 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $85 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $58 1h
Will Trump say "Brazil" during G7 events? BUY Yes 100¢ $14 5h
Will Trump say "Brazil" during G7 events? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 5h
Will Trump say "Brazil" during G7 events? BUY Yes 100¢ $115 5h
Will Trump say "Brazil" during G7 events? BUY Yes 100¢ $106 5h
Will Trump say "Brazil" during G7 events? BUY Yes 100¢ $118 5h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $5 6h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $5 6h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $5 6h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $5 6h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $5 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records