Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T13:30:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

DF
0xdf6f…1079
weather · 232 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$6 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$6 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$12
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses177 / 54
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)231 / 232
History coverage107d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%
Chart Positions 1 History 231 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$2
14 days+$3
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 13? No 99¢ 99¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C or higher on May 24? No 96¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 12? Jun 13 $12 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 11? Jun 12 $12 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 10? Jun 11 $11 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 9? Jun 10 $11 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on June 8? Jun 09 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 7? Jun 08 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 6? Jun 07 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 5? Jun 05 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 4? Jun 05 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 3? Jun 04 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 2? Jun 03 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 1? Jun 02 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on May 31? Jun 01 $9 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on May 30? May 31 $9 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on May 29? May 30 $9 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on May 28? May 28 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C or higher on May 24? May 23 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 17°C on May 23? May 23 $11 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on May 22? May 23 $11 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on May 17? May 18 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on May 16? May 16 $10 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on May 16? May 16 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on May 15? May 16 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C or below on May 15? May 15 $3 −$2 -67%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on May 14? May 15 $9 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on May 13? May 14 $9 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on May 13? May 13 $2 +$1 +29%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on May 12? May 13 $8 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C or below on May 12? May 12 $2 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on May 12? May 12 $1 −$1 -86%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on May 11? May 12 $1 $0 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on May 11? May 12 $2 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on May 11? May 12 $8 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on May 10? May 11 $8 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 31°C on May 9? May 10 $8 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 31°C on May 8? May 09 $7 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 32°C on May 7? May 08 $7 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on May 7? May 07 $1 −$1 -82%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on May 6? May 06 $7 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on May 6? May 06 $1 $0 +23%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on May 5? May 05 $7 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on May 4? May 04 $7 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on May 3? May 04 $6 +$1 +9%
Variational FDV above $800M one day after launch? May 03 $2 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 30°C on May 2? May 02 $7 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on May 1? May 02 $1 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on May 1? May 01 $6 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 30°C on April 30? May 01 $6 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 31°C on April 29? Apr 30 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 30°C on April 29? Apr 29 $1 $0 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 80% −$3
sports 17% +$2
other 1% −$1
world 1% −$1
culture 0% −$2
crypto 0% −$2
tech 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $12 1h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 12? BUY No 99¢ $12 26h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $12 2d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 10? BUY No 96¢ $11 3d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 9? BUY No 96¢ $11 4d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on June 8? BUY No 96¢ $10 5d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $10 6d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 6? BUY No 99¢ $10 7d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 5? SELL No 100¢ $10 7d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 5? BUY No 97¢ $10 8d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 4? BUY No 99¢ $10 9d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 3? BUY No 99¢ $10 10d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 2? BUY No 99¢ $10 11d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 1? BUY No 98¢ $10 12d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on May 31? SELL No 100¢ $10 12d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on May 31? BUY No 98¢ $9 13d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on May 30? SELL No 100¢ $9 13d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on May 30? BUY No 99¢ $9 14d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on May 29? BUY No 99¢ $9 15d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on May 28? SELL No 98¢ $5 15d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on May 28? BUY No 95¢ $5 15d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C or higher on May 24? BUY No 96¢ $11 20d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 17°C on May 23? BUY No 100¢ $11 21d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on May 22? BUY No 96¢ $11 22d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on May 17? BUY No 99¢ $10 27d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on May 16? SELL No 89¢ $1 27d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on May 16? BUY No 88¢ $1 28d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on May 16? BUY No 95¢ $10 28d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C or below on May 15? SELL No 24¢ $1 28d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C or below on May 15? BUY No 74¢ $2 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +2.1% -7.6% 100% 0% -7.6%
≤30d 25 -4.7% -13.8% 92% 0% -12.7%
≤90d 129 -2.5% -11.8% 88% 19% -10.3%
all 231 -1.0% -10.5% 77% 34% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 34% -10.4%
10% -19.0% 22% -19.0%
15% -26.9% 16% -26.8%
20% -34.0% 12% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.80 · official $11.80 (match) · 481 history records