Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:57:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
DF 0xdf6c…eb44 other 346 markets active 1h ago coverage 545d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$8,607 (+14%) realized +$7,807 · open +$800
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate56%166W / 129L
Whale WR88%big bets
Drawdown16%max
Avg bet$183per market
Trades / day5.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$10,194now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$36
7 days+$33
14 days+$36
30 days−$1,055
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% +$3,434
politics 31% +$2,976
world 19% +$1,614
culture 5% +$194
sports 2% +$203
tech 0% −$33
crypto 0% +$9
economics 0% −$5
finance 0% −$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-0.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +9.8% -0.7% 75% 75% -5.3%
≤30d 39 -5.7% -14.7% 33% 18% -40.5%
≤90d 113 +26.1% +14.1% 56% 40% -9.1%
all 295 +9.7% -0.8% 56% 39% +3.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.8% 39% +3.4%
10% -10.3% 26% -6.5%
15% -18.9% 19% -15.6%
20% -26.9% 15% -23.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 88% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late +17% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
7.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$80 vs −$45 · ×1.78 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.31 per $1 lost it wins $2.31
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

545d coverage
Net worth$10,194
Realized+$7,807
Unrealized+$800
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses166 / 129
Whale WR (big bets)88%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions50
Markets (closed)295 / 346
History coverage545d
Avg bet$183
Trades / day5.3
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 50 History 295 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? No 91¢ 99¢ $1,299 $1,418 +$119 (+9%)
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? No 78¢ 80¢ $1,286 $1,328 +$42 (+3%)
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 45¢ 54¢ $895 $1,054 +$158 (+18%)
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 91¢ 92¢ $728 $740 +$12 (+2%)
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? No 24¢ 20¢ $801 $658 −$143 (-18%)
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? No 70¢ 68¢ $619 $598 −$21 (-3%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 70¢ 99¢ $401 $567 +$166 (+41%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? No 63¢ 69¢ $420 $466 +$46 (+11%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 56¢ 90¢ $270 $435 +$165 (+61%)
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? No 88¢ 88¢ $398 $394 −$4 (-1%)
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? No 78¢ 83¢ $360 $384 +$24 (+7%)
Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027? No 81¢ 84¢ $192 $200 +$7 (+4%)
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? No 83¢ 95¢ $173 $198 +$25 (+14%)
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 10¢ 74¢ $24 $185 +$161 (+660%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 9¢ 16¢ $79 $136 +$57 (+72%)
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $110 $135 +$26 (+23%)
Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? Yes 10¢ 14¢ $92 $124 +$32 (+35%)
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? No 92¢ 99¢ $92 $99 +$7 (+8%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 85¢ 93¢ $90 $98 +$8 (+9%)
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 Yes 60¢ 82¢ $60 $82 +$22 (+38%)
Starmer out by August 31, 2026? No 42¢ 40¢ $85 $81 −$4 (-5%)
Nord Stream pipeline turned on before 2027? No 86¢ 94¢ $72 $79 +$7 (+10%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 25¢ 25¢ $61 $62 +$0 (+1%)
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 71¢ 72¢ $57 $57 +$0 (+1%)
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $63 $57 −$6 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Jun 17 $212 −$36 -17%
Will Kai Havertz score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $31 +$9 +30%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 13 $34 +$4 +13%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 11 $424 +$54 +13%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $177 +$3 +2%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $141 +$2 +1%
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary e Jun 05 $35 +$3 +7%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 04 $14 −$4 -30%
GTA VI released before June 2026? Jun 01 $19 +$1 +6%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $106 +$38 +35%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 01 $196 +$29 +15%
Will no listed leader be out before 2027? May 28 $6 +$3 +44%
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? May 28 $11 +$224 +2021%
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? May 28 $12 −$12 -100%
Enhanced Games: Men’s 100m Sprint World Record Broken? May 25 $118 +$9 +7%
Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a success May 23 $13 −$13 -100%
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 31? May 23 $11 −$11 -100%
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by June 30? May 23 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Australia be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will France be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? May 22 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Sweden be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 22 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Moldova win the first Eurovision Semi-Final? May 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Sweden be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? May 22 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Croatia be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 22 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Greece be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 22 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Denmark be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? May 22 $70 −$40 -57%
Will Lithuania be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Ukraine win the second Eurovision Semi-Final? May 22 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Israel win the televote for Eurovision 2026? May 22 $47 −$47 -100%
Will Denmark be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? May 22 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? May 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? May 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Will France be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 22 $141 −$141 -100%
Will Cyprus be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 22 $114 −$114 -100%
Will Ukraine win the televote for Eurovision 2026? May 22 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? May 22 $55 −$55 -100%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? May 22 $345 −$345 -100%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? May 22 $488 −$488 -100%
Starmer out by May 19, 2026? May 20 $133 +$12 +9%
Will Denmark be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $85 +$5 +6%
Will Germany be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $14 +$5 +33%
Will Germany come in last place at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $18 +$2 +11%
Will Romania be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $7 +$23 +317%
Will Ukraine be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $30 +$10 +33%
Will Israel be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $12 +$37 +300%
Will Greece be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $28 +$22 +82%
Will Greece win the televote for Eurovision 2026? May 17 $57 +$13 +22%
Will Greece be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $38 +$76 +198%
Will Israel win the first Eurovision Semi-Final? May 17 $16 +$114 +698%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $136 +$69 +50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Starmer out by August 31, 2026? SELL No 40¢ $60 1h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 68¢ $390 1h
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? SELL No 19¢ $129 1h
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? SELL No 53¢ $177 1h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $38 4d
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? BUY No 17¢ $34 4d
Starmer out by August 31, 2026? BUY No 41¢ $3 5d
Starmer out by August 31, 2026? BUY No 41¢ $1 5d
Starmer out by August 31, 2026? BUY No 41¢ $1 5d
Starmer out by August 31, 2026? BUY No 41¢ $16 5d
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? BUY No 16¢ $1 5d
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes 2¢ $21 5d
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? BUY No 16¢ $31 5d
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? BUY No 17¢ $85 5d
Starmer out by August 31, 2026? BUY No 43¢ $86 5d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? AND Will Mexico win on BUY 4¢ $10 5d
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? BUY No 19¢ $76 5d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $291 5d
Starmer out by August 31, 2026? BUY No 42¢ $42 5d
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? BUY No 24¢ $48 5d
Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $0 6d
Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $15 7d
Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $30 7d
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 76¢ $23 7d
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? BUY No 23¢ $11 7d
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? BUY No 23¢ $7 7d
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? BUY No 23¢ $51 7d
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? BUY No 78¢ $78 8d
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? BUY No 62¢ $62 8d
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10,194.30 · official $10,193.34 (match) · 3350 history records