Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T22:55:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DF 0xdf69…71a8 crypto 23 markets active 13h ago coverage 3d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$213 (-50%) realized −$213 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%8W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day9.2pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$227
other 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-31.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -24.0% -31.3% 36% 36% -58.6%
≤30d 22 -24.0% -31.3% 36% 36% -58.6%
≤90d 22 -24.0% -31.3% 36% 36% -58.6%
all 22 -24.0% -31.3% 36% 36% -58.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.3% 36% -58.6%
10% -37.8% 36% -62.6%
15% -43.9% 32% -66.2%
20% -49.4% 32% -69.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -54% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -54% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -36% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$23 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.28 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized−$213
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses8 / 14
Open positions1
Markets (closed)22 / 23
History coverage3d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day9.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 41¢ 40¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 22 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 22 $26 +$21 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 22 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 22 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 22 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 22 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 22 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 22 $25 +$8 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$5 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 19 $26 +$24 +93%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$8 +149%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 19 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 19 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$9 +170%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$8 +158%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $4 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $52 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $26 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $52 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $52 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $27 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $26 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $26 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $25 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 3d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $13 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $26 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $26 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $14 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $13 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $5 3d
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 41¢ $10 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.63 · official $9.63 (match) · 46 history records