Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T19:05:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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DF 0xdf65…d214 weather 19 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$2,078 (-66%) realized −$271 · open −$1,807
Gross ROI / mkt -87% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -90% what you keep after slip
Net edge-90%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate7%1W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$167per market
Trades / day29.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$1,151now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 99% −$1,953
crypto 0% −$15
other 0% +$7
sports 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-87.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -86.6% -87.9% 7% 7% -88.7%
≤30d 15 -86.6% -87.9% 7% 7% -88.7%
≤90d 15 -86.6% -87.9% 7% 7% -88.7%
all 15 -86.6% -87.9% 7% 7% -88.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -87.9% 7% -88.7%
10% ← realistic here -89.1% 7% -89.8%
15% -90.1% 7% -90.8%
20% -91.1% 7% -91.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -88% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -87% · $-wt -88% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -98% → late -76% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$12 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$1,151
Realized−$271
Unrealized−$1,807
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses1 / 14
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)15 / 19
History coverage2d
Avg bet$167
Trades / day29.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 26? No 90¢ 100¢ $1,028 $1,143 +$115 (+11%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 26? No $5 $6 +$2 (+30%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 36°C on June 26? No 58¢ $924 $1 −$924 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C on June 26? Yes 83¢ $1,000 $1 −$999 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 25? Jun 25 $21 −$20 -96%
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C on June 25? Jun 25 $27 −$26 -96%
Will the highest temperature in London be 34°C on June 25? Jun 25 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $8 +$7 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 24 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 36°C or higher on June 25? Jun 24 $13 −$12 -95%
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C on June 25? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -95%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C or below on June 25? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 25? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on June 25? Jun 24 $27 −$26 -96%
Will the highest temperature in London be 36°C on June 24? Jun 24 $50 −$44 -87%
Will the highest temperature in London be 38°C on June 24? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in London be 37°C on June 24? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 26? BUY No $5 3m
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 26? BUY No 90¢ $90 1h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 26? BUY No 90¢ $88 1h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 26? BUY No 90¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 26? BUY No 90¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 26? BUY No 93¢ $201 1h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 26? BUY No 90¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 26? BUY No 90¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 26? BUY No 90¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 26? BUY No 90¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 26? BUY No 91¢ $28 1h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 26? BUY No 92¢ $11 1h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 26? BUY No 92¢ $81 1h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 26? BUY No 91¢ $62 2h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 26? BUY No 91¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 26? BUY No 90¢ $6 2h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 26? BUY No 90¢ $36 2h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 26? BUY No 90¢ $9 2h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 26? BUY No 90¢ $9 2h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 26? BUY No 84¢ $101 2h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 26? BUY No 92¢ $57 2h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 26? BUY No 92¢ $18 2h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 26? BUY No 90¢ $15 2h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 26? BUY No 76¢ $9 2h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 26? BUY No 88¢ $150 2h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 26? BUY No 88¢ $26 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C on June 26? BUY Yes 85¢ $504 5h
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C on June 26? BUY Yes 81¢ $505 5h
Will the highest temperature in London be 36°C on June 26? BUY No 58¢ $944 7h
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 25? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 31h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,150.69 · official $1,157.69 (match) · 68 history records