Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:12:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
DF 0xdf65…c36d crypto 160 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 1d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (3344 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$15,851 (+70%) realized +$15,850 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate35%75W / 140L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$141per market
Trades / day3344.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$236now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (3344 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-31.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 215 -24.1% -31.4% 35% 22% -10.6%
≤30d 215 -24.1% -31.4% 35% 22% -10.6%
≤90d 215 -24.1% -31.4% 35% 22% -10.6%
all 215 -24.1% -31.4% 35% 22% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3344.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -31.4% 22% -10.6%
10% ← realistic here -37.9% 15% -19.2%
15% -43.9% 9% -27.0%
20% -49.4% 5% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -54% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
20.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$16 · ×1.64 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$236
Realized+$15,850
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses75 / 140
Open positions1
Markets (closed)215 / 160
History coverage1d ⚠
Avg bet$141
Trades / day3344.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 215 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Up 28¢ 38¢ $91 $124 +$33 (+36%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Down 62¢ 62¢ $112 $112 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 60 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $2 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $4 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $4 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $3 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $6 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $2 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $8 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $18 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $18 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $20 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $20 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $3 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $14 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $3 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $7 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $8 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $9 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $3 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $4 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $4 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $2 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $0 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $30 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $30 3m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $236.24 · official $255.74 · 3500 history records