Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T05:26:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
DF 0xdf64…436e crypto 5 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$205 (+19%) realized +$147 · open +$58
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%2W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$216per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$153now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$137
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+6.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +17.4% +6.2% 50% 50% -27.5%
≤30d 4 +17.4% +6.2% 50% 50% -27.5%
≤90d 4 +17.4% +6.2% 50% 50% -27.5%
all 4 +17.4% +6.2% 50% 50% -27.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +6.2% 50% -27.5%
10% -3.9% 50% -34.4%
15% -13.2% 50% -40.8%
20% -21.7% 50% -46.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 66% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$76 vs −$173 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$153
Realized+$147
Unrealized+$58
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses2 / 2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)4 / 5
History coverage1d
Avg bet$216
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 21? Up 44¢ 70¢ $95 $153 +$58 (+60%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1AM ET Jun 21 $164 −$58 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12AM ET Jun 21 $618 −$288 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6PM ET Jun 20 $100 +$99 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5PM ET Jun 20 $100 +$52 +52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1AM ET SELL Down 42¢ $107 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $164 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $206 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12AM ET SELL Up 65¢ $200 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $230 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12AM ET SELL Down 43¢ $130 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $182 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $100 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $100 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 21? BUY Up 44¢ $100 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $153.00 · official $153.00 (match) · 13 history records