Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T01:14:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DF 0xdf60…2603 other 152 markets active 2h ago coverage 228d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$172 (+5%) realized +$207 · open −$35
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate28%42W / 109L
Drawdown49%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Kalshi-fit21%portable
Net worth$223now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$72
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 43% +$2
other 30% +$168
weather 24% −$33
culture 3% $0
sports 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-35.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.6% -9.0% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 15 -72.4% -75.0% 20% 7% +3.9%
≤90d 58 -10.3% -18.9% 12% 9% +17.7%
all 151 -29.1% -35.8% 28% 4% -5.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -35.8% 4% -5.1%
10% -42.0% 4% -14.2%
15% -47.6% 4% -22.5%
20% -52.7% 4% -30.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +30% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -27% → late -32% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$4 · ×3.69 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.42 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

228d coverage
Net worth$223
Realized+$207
Unrealized−$35
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses42 / 109
Open positions1
Markets (closed)151 / 152
History coverage228d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown49%
Kalshi-fit21%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 151 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 24? No 99¢ 85¢ $258 $223 −$35 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 109 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 23? Jun 23 $50 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,100 on June 18? Jun 18 $250 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $120 +$135 +113%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 02 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? May 31 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? May 30 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? May 28 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? May 28 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? May 27 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? May 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? May 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? May 26 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? May 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? May 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 15 $7 +$93 +1329%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 12 $7 −$6 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 11 $0 $0 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 11 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 10 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 09 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 08 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 06 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 05 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 05 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 05 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 05 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? May 05 $7 +$93 +1329%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Apr 19 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Apr 19 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Apr 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Apr 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Apr 15 $5 −$5 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Apr 15 $2 −$2 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Apr 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Apr 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Apr 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Apr 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Apr 11 $0 $0 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Apr 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Apr 11 $38 +$62 +163%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Apr 06 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Apr 03 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Apr 03 $0 $0 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Apr 02 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Apr 02 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Apr 01 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Mar 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 24? BUY No 99¢ $258 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 23? BUY No 99¢ $50 9h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,100 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $250 8d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY Yes 72¢ $113 18d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $7 19d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $7 21d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 21d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 21d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 22d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $7 23d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $0 23d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $0 23d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 24d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $0 24d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 24d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $0 24d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $0 24d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $0 24d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $0 24d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 26d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 26d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 27d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $0 27d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 27d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 28d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 28d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 28d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 28d
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 28d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $7 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $222.97 · official $244.02 · 348 history records