Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:30:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DF 0xdf5f…a1e3 crypto 148 markets active 0h ago coverage 271d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$902 (+0%) realized +$898 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate89%129W / 16L
Whale WR97%big bets
Drawdown60%max
Avg bet$4,179per market
Trades / day6.0pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$10,186now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$58
7 days+$100
14 days+$104
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 43% +$234
crypto 17% +$60
finance 12% +$346
politics 10% +$9
other 10% +$243
economics 7% +$132
sports 0% −$444
tech 0% +$17
weather 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -6.0% -15.0% 88% 12% -9.3%
≤30d 41 -4.3% -13.4% 80% 7% -9.5%
≤90d 101 -3.4% -12.6% 88% 3% -9.4%
all 145 -2.2% -11.5% 89% 6% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.0 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.5% 6% -9.4%
10% ← realistic here -20.0% 3% -18.1%
15% -27.7% 1% -26.0%
20% -34.8% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 97% (≥$3,987) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$59 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.66 per $1 lost it wins $1.66
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

271d coverage
Net worth$10,186
Realized+$898
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses129 / 16
Whale WR (big bets)97%
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions3
Markets (closed)145 / 148
History coverage271d
Avg bet$4,179
Trades / day6.0
Drawdown60%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 145 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $6,560 $6,561 +$1 (+0%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $2,149 $2,151 +$2 (+0%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $230 by end of June? No 99¢ 100¢ $1,472 $1,474 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 17 $11,708 +$43 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 17 $11,807 +$15 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? Jun 16 $13,361 +$143 +1%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $116 −$116 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $110 +$7 +6%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? Jun 12 $107 +$1 +1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? Jun 12 $200 +$3 +2%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 +$4 +42%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? Jun 11 $10 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? Jun 09 $10 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 7? Jun 09 $8 −$8 -100%
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day Jun 08 $568 +$10 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C or higher on June 6? Jun 06 $7 $0 +1%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 06 $8 −$2 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 5? Jun 05 $9 $0 +4%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of June? Jun 04 $397 +$2 +1%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 02 $21 +$5 +22%
Will o1 launch a token by September 30, 2027? Jun 01 $19 +$1 +3%
Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds May 30 $192 +$7 +4%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles May 30 $577 −$486 -84%
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? May 30 $4,266 +$11 +0%
Xi Jinping out before 2027? May 30 $12,456 +$19 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? May 29 $3,987 +$4 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 29 $86,167 +$169 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May? May 28 $9,794 +$15 +0%
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers May 28 $106 +$4 +4%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 27 $10 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $40 in May? May 27 $75 $0 +0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 27 $10 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? May 27 $4 +$1 +26%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? May 27 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? May 27 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in May? May 27 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in May? May 27 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? May 27 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in May? May 27 $10 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? May 26 $9,312 +$107 +1%
Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardians May 25 $557 +$17 +3%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants May 25 $368 +$18 +5%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres May 21 $373 +$5 +1%
Trump out as President by May 31? May 20 $5,613 +$6 +0%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers May 19 $103 $0 +0%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays May 18 $88 +$2 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? May 13 $3,834 +$3 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? May 01 $7,646 +$18 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in April? May 01 $3,818 +$4 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in April? May 01 $925 +$2 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in April? May 01 $166 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April? May 01 $1,193 +$3 +0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? Apr 30 $373 +$5 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,345 28m
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $230 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $1,473 31m
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $230 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $3,817 54m
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,430 1h
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $230 by end of June? BUY No 89¢ $56 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,262 1h
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $230 by end of June? BUY No 81¢ $976 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,009 1h
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $230 by end of June? BUY No 70¢ $1 1h
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $230 by end of June? BUY No 74¢ $4 1h
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $230 by end of June? BUY No 70¢ $2 1h
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $230 by end of June? BUY No 70¢ $1,821 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $2,019 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $2,149 12h
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1 13h
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $0 13h
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1 13h
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1 13h
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,293 14h
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $2,110 14h
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $4,668 14h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet SELL Yes 100¢ $10,210 19h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet SELL Yes 100¢ $10 20h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 100¢ $10,181 35h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $10,075 35h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $8 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $101 2d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $4,920 2d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $19 2d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $21 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10,185.89 · official $10,185.89 (match) · 1768 history records