Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:17:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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DF 0xdf59…deb0 world 150 markets active 1h ago coverage 95d ⚠
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 95d only
! high turnover
Total PnL −$168 (-0%) realized −$419 · open +$251
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +40% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +8% what you keep after slip
Net edge+8%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate68%86W / 40L
Whale WR53%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$302per market
Trades / day35.6pace
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$5,596now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$221
7 days+$41
14 days−$797
30 days−$285
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 64% +$110
other 32% +$266
finance 2% +$46
tech 1% +$2
politics 1% +$80
crypto 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+26.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -12.2% -20.6% 46% 23% -8.7%
≤30d 59 +2.6% -7.1% 56% 34% -10.7%
≤90d 108 +46.2% +32.3% 69% 41% -9.1%
all 126 +40.0% +26.7% 68% 38% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover35.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +26.7% 38% -8.9%
10% ← realistic here +14.6% 24% -17.6%
15% +3.5% 15% -25.6%
20% -6.6% 10% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +40% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 53% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +77% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
14.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$41 vs −$82 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

95d coverage
Net worth$5,596
Realized−$419
Unrealized+$251
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses86 / 40
Whale WR (big bets)53%
Open positions24
Markets (closed)126 / 150
History coverage95d ⚠
Avg bet$302
Trades / day35.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 24 History 126 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 86¢ 93¢ $581 $627 +$46 (+8%)
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by June 30? No 87¢ 92¢ $543 $576 +$33 (+6%)
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? No 70¢ 72¢ $560 $572 +$12 (+2%)
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No 75¢ 84¢ $412 $463 +$51 (+12%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 84¢ 84¢ $419 $421 +$2 (+0%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 90¢ 100¢ $360 $399 +$39 (+11%)
US strike on Mexico by December 31? No 84¢ 86¢ $300 $310 +$10 (+3%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 89¢ 97¢ $282 $307 +$25 (+9%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? No 64¢ 74¢ $256 $294 +$38 (+15%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 80¢ 88¢ $225 $248 +$23 (+10%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? No 79¢ 86¢ $198 $216 +$19 (+9%)
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? No 86¢ 87¢ $200 $202 +$2 (+1%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? No 77¢ 78¢ $192 $193 +$1 (+1%)
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? No 83¢ 89¢ $124 $134 +$10 (+8%)
Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026? No 59¢ 63¢ $118 $126 +$8 (+7%)
Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027? No 85¢ 87¢ $105 $108 +$3 (+2%)
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? OpenAI 29¢ 26¢ $87 $80 −$8 (-9%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? No 47¢ 25¢ $141 $75 −$66 (-47%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? No 63¢ 68¢ $63 $68 +$5 (+8%)
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026? No 3¢ 4¢ $49 $63 +$14 (+28%)
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? No 41¢ 36¢ $70 $62 −$8 (-11%)
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 Yes 65¢ 83¢ $23 $29 +$6 (+27%)
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? No 19¢ 22¢ $10 $12 +$1 (+13%)
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on June 30? Yes 9¢ 4¢ $27 $11 −$16 (-58%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $58 +$4 +6%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 18 $77 +$23 +30%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 17 $201 +$195 +97%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 15? Jun 16 $141 +$11 +8%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 16 $791 +$476 +60%
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30? Jun 15 $34 −$6 -17%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 15 $995 −$442 -44%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 15 $225 −$56 -25%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? Jun 12 $16 −$16 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? Jun 12 $50 −$50 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 12 $908 −$74 -8%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $543 −$91 -17%
Will "Obsession" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on Ju Jun 11 $723 +$69 +10%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 10 $5 +$3 +61%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 09 $73 +$8 +11%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 09 $89 +$9 +10%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 09 $43 +$4 +10%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 09 $96 +$35 +37%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 08 $436 +$58 +13%
Iran closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 07 $358 +$99 +28%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $1,484 −$825 -56%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $92 −$87 -95%
Will Eugen Tomac be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Jun 07 $70 +$9 +13%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? Jun 06 $165 −$2 -2%
Will "Backrooms" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on Ju Jun 06 $166 −$148 -89%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $1,046 +$86 +8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $1,607 +$6 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 01 $174 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 01 $175 −$76 -43%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 01 $496 +$206 +42%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 01 $250 +$35 +14%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $1,548 +$117 +8%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $820 +$26 +3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? Jun 01 $149 +$151 +101%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 30 $232 +$4 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? May 30 $249 −$16 -7%
Will anyone be charged over Epstein disclosures? May 30 $201 −$1 -1%
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31? May 29 $150 +$50 +33%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? May 29 $41 +$5 +12%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $1,892 +$197 +10%
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? May 28 $200 +$32 +16%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 27 $300 +$98 +33%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27? May 27 $153 +$13 +9%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 27 $141 +$65 +46%
US x Iran permanent peace deal before ceasefire ends? May 26 $325 +$375 +115%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 28? May 26 $63 +$237 +376%
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? May 25 $31 −$7 -23%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through December 31? May 25 $401 −$401 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? May 24 $327 −$54 -17%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 23 $264 −$109 -41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL No 20¢ $39 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL No 20¢ $22 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY No 19¢ $58 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 55¢ $88 24h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 57¢ $91 41h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $146 47h
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30? SELL Yes 28¢ $22 2d
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30? SELL Yes 28¢ $5 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 64¢ $188 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 64¢ $15 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $13 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $20 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $6 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 2d
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" be the May film with the highest domest BUY Yes 9¢ $25 5d
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" be the May film with the highest domest BUY Yes 9¢ $2 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? BUY No 41¢ $16 6d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? BUY No 50¢ $50 6d
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by June 3 SELL No 94¢ $103 6d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY Yes 83¢ $83 6d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 77¢ $77 6d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL No 17¢ $65 6d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL No 18¢ $1 6d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 27¢ $81 6d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL No 18¢ $1 6d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY No 75¢ $75 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 77¢ $116 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 76¢ $7 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,596.19 · official $5,594.12 (match) · 3500 history records