Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T22:44:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DF 0xdf58…5073 other 26 markets active 1h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$2,746 (+13%) realized +$2,746 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate35%9W / 17L
Whale WR43%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$819per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Fees−$57est.
Kalshi-fit27%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,756
7 days+$682
14 days+$857
30 days+$857
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 85% +$2,770
sports 15% −$1,913
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-34.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -47.4% -52.5% 29% 29% -1.0%
≤30d 26 -28.0% -34.8% 35% 31% -0.7%
≤90d 26 -28.0% -34.8% 35% 31% -0.7%
all 26 -28.0% -34.8% 35% 31% -0.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.8% 31% -0.7%
10% -41.1% 31% -10.2%
15% -46.8% 15% -18.9%
20% -52.0% 12% -26.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 72% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 43% (≥$871) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -3% → late -53% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$675 vs −$307 · ×2.2 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2,746
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses9 / 17
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Est. fees paid−$57
Open positions0
Markets (closed)26 / 26
History coverage10d
Avg bet$819
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit27%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 26 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $53 −$44 -83%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $3,150 +$1,104 +35%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $2,106 +$1,124 +53%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1,049 −$278 -26%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $107 −$100 -94%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $53 −$50 -94%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $2,121 −$1,824 -86%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1,062 −$56 -5%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $214 −$163 -76%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $2,103 −$2,103 -100%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 18 $53 −$53 -100%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $107 −$107 -100%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $210 +$68 +32%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $107 −$104 -97%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $107 −$98 -92%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $7,358 +$3,282 +45%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $262 +$82 +31%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $53 −$53 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $53 −$53 -100%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $53 −$53 -100%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 15 $53 −$53 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $262 +$76 +29%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $53 +$194 +365%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $106 +$4 +4%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $293 −$29 -10%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $158 +$144 +91%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes $4 1h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes $5 1h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes $53 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 99¢ $4,254 3h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $3,150 5h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 96¢ $3,230 20h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 57¢ $2,106 21h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 57¢ $771 26h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $1,049 27h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 12¢ $107 42h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes $53 47h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes $164 2d
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $2,121 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 30¢ $1,006 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 28¢ $1,062 2d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes $26 2d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes $9 2d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes $214 2d
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? SELL Yes $3 3d
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes $107 4d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 72¢ $210 4d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $107 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 62¢ $2,103 5d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes $9 5d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $107 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $10,639 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $7,358 5d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes $53 6d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $344 6d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 69¢ $262 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 56 history records