Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T12:23:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
DF 0xdf57…c5a1 other 9 markets active 2h ago coverage 580d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$91 (+8%) realized +$93 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -36% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%3W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$134per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$398now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$158
7 days+$108
14 days+$108
30 days+$108
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 92% +$74
politics 4% +$7
economics 2% +$14
tech 2% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-42.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -18.8% -26.6% 33% 33% +5.0%
≤30d 3 -18.8% -26.6% 33% 33% +5.0%
≤90d 3 -18.8% -26.6% 33% 33% +5.0%
all 8 -36.0% -42.1% 38% 38% -0.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -42.1% 38% -0.7%
10% -47.6% 25% -10.2%
15% -52.7% 25% -18.9%
20% -57.3% 12% -26.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 87% · top 2 95% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -36% · $-wt +10% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$61 vs −$21 · ×2.92 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.75 per $1 lost it wins $1.75
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

580d coverage
Net worth$398
Realized+$93
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses3 / 5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)8 / 9
History coverage580d
Avg bet$134
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 49¢ 48¢ $400 $398 −$2 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $303 +$158 +52%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $351 −$31 -9%
Trump declassifies JFK files in first 100 days? Jan 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Yoon arrested by January 31? Jan 14 $31 −$31 -100%
TikTok banned in the US before May 2025? Jan 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Mike Johnson be the first elected Speaker of the House for the 11 Jan 04 $44 +$9 +22%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2024 meeting? Dec 14 $30 +$14 +47%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 49¢ $406 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $20 5d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 65¢ $303 5d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $320 5d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $210 161d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $140 161d
Trump declassifies JFK files in first 100 days? BUY No 26¢ $2 514d
Yoon arrested by January 31? BUY No 58¢ $31 523d
TikTok banned in the US before May 2025? BUY No 37¢ $20 523d
Will Mike Johnson be the first elected Speaker of the House for the 11 BUY Yes 82¢ $44 537d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2024 meeting? SELL Yes 96¢ $44 554d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2024 meeting? BUY Yes 65¢ $30 579d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $397.71 · official $397.71 (match) · 169 history records