Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T19:32:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

DF 0xdf57…b569 other 3 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable

Total PnL +$47 (+16%) realized +$52 · open −$5

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +62% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +47% what you keep after slip

Net edge+47%after slip

Net WR100%break-even

Win rate100%1W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$99per market

Trades / day3.0pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$213now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +100%

net ROI/market (all)+46.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	+62.0%	+46.6%	100%	100%	+46.6%
≤30d	1	+62.0%	+46.6%	100%	100%	+46.6%
≤90d	1	+62.0%	+46.6%	100%	100%	+46.6%
all	1	+62.0%	+46.6%	100%	100%	+46.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover3.0 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+46.6%	100%	+46.6%
10%	+32.6%	100%	+32.6%
15%	+19.8%	100%	+19.8%
20%	+8.0%	100%	+8.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +62% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +62% · $-wt +62% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$47 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$213

Realized+$52

Unrealized−$5

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses1 / 0

Open positions2

Markets (closed)1 / 3

History coverage1d

Avg bet$99

Trades / day3.0

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 1 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27?	Yes	50¢	48¢	$120	$114	−$6 (-5%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27?	Yes	54¢	55¢	$98	$99	+$1 (+1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 27	$77	+$47	+62%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	54¢	$100	1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	50¢	$122	7h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	61¢	$77	21h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $212.84 · official $212.84 (match) · 4 history records