trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? | Yes | 82¢ | 81¢ | $39 | $39 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score | Yes | 47¢ | 46¢ | $19 | $19 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? | Yes | 18¢ | 16¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-8%) |
| Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC: O/U 2.5 | Over | 69¢ | 0¢ | $79 | $0 | −$79 (-100%) |
| Pharos FDV above $300M one day after launch? | No | 13¢ | 0¢ | $3 | $0 | −$3 (-100%) |
| Pharos FDV above $500M one day after launch? | No | 25¢ | 0¢ | $13 | $0 | −$13 (-100%) |
| Will FK Polissia win on 2026-05-16? | Yes | 62¢ | 0¢ | $13 | $0 | −$13 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC: O/U 2.5 | May 18 | $80 | −$79 | -99% |
| Will FK Polissia win on 2026-05-16? | May 18 | $13 | −$13 | -99% |
| Will Aaron Rai win the 2026 PGA Championship? | May 18 | $92 | +$1 | +1% |
| Will Jon Rahm win the 2026 PGA Championship? | May 17 | $10 | −$8 | -78% |
| Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? | May 16 | $31 | +$20 | +64% |
| Billions FDV above $200M one day after launch? | May 04 | $21 | +$10 | +46% |
| Gensyn FDV above $400M one day after launch? | Apr 30 | $83 | +$29 | +34% |
| Pharos FDV above $800M one day after launch? | Apr 29 | $20 | −$14 | -68% |
| Pharos FDV above $2B one day after launch? | Apr 29 | $49 | +$3 | +7% |
| Pharos FDV above $1B one day after launch? | Apr 29 | $25 | +$9 | +38% |
| Pharos FDV above $500M one day after launch? | Apr 27 | $14 | −$13 | -95% |
| Pharos FDV above $300M one day after launch? | Apr 27 | $3 | −$3 | -94% |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? | Apr 27 | $20 | +$1 | +6% |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | Apr 25 | $114 | +$1 | +1% |
| Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in t | Apr 12 | $4 | +$1 | +17% |
| OneFootball FDV above $20M one day after launch? | Apr 11 | $108 | +$1 | +1% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 5 | -42.4% | -47.9% | 40% | 20% | -41.3% |
| ≤90d | 16 | -20.7% | -28.3% | 62% | 31% | -16.7% |
| all | 16 | -20.7% | -28.3% | 62% | 31% | -16.7% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -28.3% | 31% | -16.7% |
| 10% | -35.1% | 25% | -24.7% |
| 15% | -41.4% | 19% | -32.0% |
| 20% | -47.1% | 6% | -38.7% |