Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T16:34:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
DF 0xdf52…cbac politics 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 113d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate11%2W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$108per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 35% −$1
other 35% $0
sports 10% $0
world 10% $0
tech 5% $0
economics 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 14 -0.1% -9.6% 14% 0% -9.6%
all 19 -0.1% -9.6% 11% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.16 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

113d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses2 / 17
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)19 / 19
History coverage113d
Avg bet$108
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 19 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $101 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $102 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $102 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 22 $102 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 18 $102 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $102 $0 +0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? May 13 $205 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 08 $102 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $103 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $103 $0 +0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 14 $103 $0 +0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $103 $0 +0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 08 $103 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Mar 24 $103 $0 +0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Mar 18 $103 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Mar 16 $104 $0 -0%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 14 $104 $0 +0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Mar 12 $104 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 02 $104 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $101 1h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $101 13h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $101 10d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $102 11d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $102 25d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $102 25d
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $102 31d
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $102 31d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $102 34d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $102 35d
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $102 36d
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $102 40d
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $102 41d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $102 44d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $102 45d
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $103 65d
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $35 65d
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $17 65d
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $51 65d
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $103 66d
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $3 66d
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $63 66d
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $37 66d
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $103 68d
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $103 69d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $103 71d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $103 72d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $103 75d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $103 76d
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $103 82d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 52 history records