Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T15:58:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
DF 0xdf52…3170 crypto 1006 markets active 1h ago coverage 86d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 85d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,815 (-9%) realized −$3,815 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate71%719W / 287L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day29.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$45
7 days−$469
14 days−$648
30 days−$728
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$3,357
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 137 -5.5% -14.5% 66% 61% -16.3%
≤30d 248 -2.8% -12.1% 69% 63% -15.1%
≤90d 1006 -5.4% -14.4% 71% 50% -16.4%
all 1006 -5.4% -14.4% 71% 50% -16.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.4% 50% -16.4%
10% ← realistic here -22.6% 36% -24.4%
15% -30.1% 21% -31.7%
20% -36.9% 11% -38.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$50 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3,815
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses719 / 287
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1006 / 1006
History coverage86d ⚠
Avg bet$44
Trades / day29.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1006 Trades
no open positions (100 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $50 +$14 +27%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $50 +$14 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $50 +$16 +33%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $50 +$18 +35%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $51 +$19 +37%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $19 +$5 +25%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $50 +$5 +10%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $43 +$18 +43%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $51 +$29 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $50 +$14 +27%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $51 +$20 +39%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $50 −$49 -98%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $50 +$16 +32%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $51 −$50 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $23 +$6 +24%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 14 $50 −$49 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 13 $53 −$50 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 13 $50 −$49 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 13 $50 −$49 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 13 $51 −$49 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 13 $51 +$65 +127%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 13 $47 −$46 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 13 $50 −$49 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 13 $47 −$46 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 13 $50 −$49 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 13 $31 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 13 $39 +$269 +698%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 12 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 12 $52 −$50 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 12 $50 +$5 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 12 $51 +$19 +38%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 12 $50 +$18 +36%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 12 $50 +$9 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 12 $51 +$15 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 12 $50 −$49 -98%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 12 $24 +$7 +29%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 12 $50 −$49 -98%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 12 $35 −$34 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 12 $51 +$32 +64%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 12 $50 +$9 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 12 $49 +$19 +40%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $52 +$40 +78%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $34 +$16 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $48 −$46 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $50 −$49 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 12 $50 −$49 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 12 $51 −$50 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $50 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $50 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $50 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $51 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $19 8h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $50 9h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $43 10h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $51 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $50 13h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $51 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $50 16h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $51 17h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $50 17h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $23 17h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $50 23h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $50 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $53 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $50 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $51 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $47 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $51 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $50 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $47 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $50 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $31 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $39 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $52 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records