Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:06:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
DF 0xdf50…0c30 crypto 59 markets active 1d ago coverage 86d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate93%55W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 79% $0
other 19% +$1
weather 1% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 16 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 59 -3.2% -12.5% 93% 0% -9.5%
all 59 -3.2% -12.5% 93% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.5% 0% -9.5%
10% -20.8% 0% -18.2%
15% -28.5% 0% -26.1%
20% -35.5% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses55 / 4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)59 / 59
History coverage86d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 59 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $19 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $21 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $24 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $21 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $16 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $16 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 6? Jun 06 $16 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 5? Jun 05 $23 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $21 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $18 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 1080-1119 tweets in May 2026? Jun 01 $18 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 26? May 26 $19 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 25 $16 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $22 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 21? May 21 $24 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? May 18 $27 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 15? May 15 $33 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 14? May 14 $26 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026? May 13 $20 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 12 $24 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 11? May 11 $20 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? May 10 $6 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026? May 06 $20 $0 +0%
Will Threads be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on April 28? May 06 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026? Apr 27 $23 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 23 to April 25, 2026? Apr 25 $18 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 23? Apr 23 $19 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 20 to April 22, 2026? Apr 22 $23 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 21? Apr 21 $14 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in April? Apr 21 $9 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 19? Apr 20 $24 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 18? Apr 19 $24 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 17? Apr 18 $24 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 13 to April 15, 2026? Apr 16 $24 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on April 14? Apr 15 $23 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on April 13? Apr 13 $17 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 12? Apr 13 $33 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on April 10? Apr 11 $22 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 9? Apr 09 $26 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 7? Apr 08 $22 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from April 4 to April 6, 2026? Apr 07 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on April 5? Apr 06 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on April 5? Apr 06 $24 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 5? Apr 04 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on April 5? Apr 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on April 3? Apr 04 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on April 2? Apr 04 $34 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 15°C or below on April 2? Apr 02 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 1? Apr 02 $34 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 31? Apr 01 $64 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $19 25h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $21 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $24 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 9? BUY Yes 100¢ $21 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $16 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 7? BUY Yes 100¢ $16 10d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $16 11d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $23 12d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $21 14d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $18 14d
Will Elon Musk post 1080-1119 tweets in May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $18 17d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 26? BUY Yes 100¢ $19 22d
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $16 24d
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $22 26d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 21? BUY No 100¢ $24 27d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $27 30d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 15? BUY No 100¢ $33 33d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 14? BUY Yes 100¢ $26 34d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $20 35d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $24 36d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $20 37d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? SELL No 99¢ $6 37d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? BUY No 99¢ $6 40d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $20 42d
Will Threads be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on April 28? BUY No 100¢ $10 50d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $23 51d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 23 to April 25, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $18 53d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $19 55d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 20 to April 22, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $23 56d
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in April? SELL No 100¢ $9 57d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 119 history records