Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T08:07:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
DF 0xdf4f…8fe8 crypto 61 markets active 1h ago coverage 30d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$20 (-5%) realized −$20 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate56%30W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days+$12
14 days+$12
30 days−$27
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 76% −$28
other 19% −$5
sports 5% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 +6.6% -3.6% 64% 49% -5.3%
≤30d 54 -2.8% -12.1% 56% 41% -15.8%
≤90d 54 -2.8% -12.1% 56% 41% -15.8%
all 54 -2.8% -12.1% 56% 41% -15.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 41% -15.8%
10% -20.5% 31% -23.8%
15% -28.2% 24% -31.2%
20% -35.2% 22% -37.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -30% → late +24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$5 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized−$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses30 / 24
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions7
Markets (closed)54 / 61
History coverage30d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 54 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Solana Up or Down on June 15? Up 99¢ 99¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Yes 73¢ 72¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 70¢ 69¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 56¢ 56¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Yes 82¢ 86¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+5%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 61¢ 62¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +14%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 +$2 +93%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +7%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 +$7 +262%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 +$1 +6%
Solana Up or Down on June 14? Jun 14 $49 −$4 -8%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 14? Jun 14 $16 +$11 +67%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 +$11 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 14 $17 +$5 +29%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 +$14 +276%
Solana Up or Down on June 13? Jun 13 $7 +$3 +38%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 13? Jun 13 $10 −$7 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 13? Jun 13 $2 $0 +15%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$4 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$4 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$4 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$5 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$6 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +7%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET May 18 $3 +$2 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET May 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET May 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET May 16 $2 +$3 +127%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET May 16 $12 −$2 -16%
BNB Up or Down - May 16, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET May 16 $3 +$2 +79%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET May 16 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 16, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET May 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET May 16 $35 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - May 16, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET May 16 $21 −$6 -30%
Solana Up or Down - May 16, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET May 16 $11 −$3 -33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $5 39m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $5 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $5 56m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $2 4h
Solana Up or Down on June 15? BUY Up 99¢ $10 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $10 20h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 14? BUY Down 61¢ $11 25h
Solana Up or Down on June 14? BUY Down 64¢ $15 25h
Solana Up or Down on June 14? BUY Down 65¢ $15 25h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 73¢ $10 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $2 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 26h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 26h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 46¢ $10 27h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $7 27h
Solana Up or Down on June 14? BUY Up 66¢ $7 27h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $2 27h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 82¢ $2 27h
Solana Up or Down on June 14? BUY Up 68¢ $2 27h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 14? BUY Down 54¢ $2 27h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $2 27h
Solana Up or Down on June 14? BUY Up 68¢ $10 27h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $10 27h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $5 27h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $2 27h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $2 27h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 27h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $2 27h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 14? BUY Down 52¢ $2 27h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $5 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.53 · official $44.53 (match) · 186 history records