Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T13:15:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DF 0xdf4b…5c8d other 54 markets active 2h ago coverage 25d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$378 (-14%) realized −$301 · open −$77
Gross ROI / mkt -45% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -52% what you keep after slip
Net edge-52%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate22%4W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day4.8pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$1,284now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$20
14 days−$85
30 days−$449
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$45
tech 19% $0
sports 13% −$290
world 9% −$150
crypto 6% −$7
politics 3% +$2
economics 3% −$36
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-49.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -15.6% -23.7% 60% 0% -17.0%
≤30d 18 -44.6% -49.8% 22% 6% -50.1%
≤90d 18 -44.6% -49.8% 22% 6% -50.1%
all 18 -44.6% -49.8% 22% 6% -50.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -49.8% 6% -50.1%
10% -54.6% 6% -54.9%
15% -59.0% 6% -59.2%
20% -63.0% 6% -63.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 92% · top 2 96% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -45% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -45% · $-wt -45% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -58% → late -31% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$35 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$1,284
Realized−$301
Unrealized−$77
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses4 / 14
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions36
Markets (closed)18 / 54
History coverage25d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day4.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 36 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 92¢ 98¢ $349 $372 +$23 (+7%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $182 $187 +$5 (+3%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $92 $109 +$17 (+19%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $82 $103 +$22 (+26%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $21 $62 +$41 (+195%)
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30? No 94¢ 100¢ $56 $59 +$3 (+5%)
Human moon landing in 2026? No 97¢ 97¢ $56 $56 +$0 (+0%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $91 $56 −$35 (-38%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $49 $50 +$1 (+1%)
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House Yes 36¢ 36¢ $35 $35 +$0 (+1%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $34 $24 −$10 (-28%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $30 $22 −$8 (-25%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $22 +$2 (+8%)
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $41 $20 −$20 (-50%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $24 $19 −$5 (-20%)
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes $20 $16 −$4 (-21%)
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $25 $12 −$12 (-50%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $12 $10 −$2 (-14%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $16 $10 −$6 (-39%)
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026? Yes 39¢ 38¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin all time high by September 30, 2026? Yes $14 $4 −$10 (-70%)
Will Kai Havertz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $25 $3 −$22 (-89%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $2 −$1 -53%
Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by June 30? Jun 20 $56 +$1 +1%
Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026? Jun 20 $56 +$1 +2%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Jun 20 $56 +$2 +3%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 17 $71 −$22 -32%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 14 $50 −$24 -48%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 14 $78 −$39 -49%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $102 −$2 -2%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 09 $3 −$3 -95%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 09 $5 −$5 -95%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 09 $3 −$3 -95%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 09 $1 −$1 -95%
Fed rate hike in 2026? Jun 09 $75 −$24 -32%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 08 $354 −$290 -82%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 08 $44 +$43 +96%
Ethereum flipped in 2026? Jun 03 $31 −$8 -25%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $65 −$65 -100%
Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in July 2026 (ET)? Jun 01 $14 −$9 -64%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $26 1h
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 2h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 2h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $31 27h
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $5 32h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $189 33h
Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $57 2d
Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $57 2d
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $58 2d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $50 2d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $41 2d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $44 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $17 2d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $25 2d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 2d
Will Kai Havertz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $26 4d
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 61¢ $204 4d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $18 5d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 5d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 5d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 5d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 52¢ $48 6d
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 8d
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 55¢ $61 8d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? SELL No 30¢ $26 9d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 33¢ $40 9d
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 70¢ $100 10d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? SELL Yes 47¢ $100 10d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY Yes $1 14d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $20 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,284.01 · official $1,284.10 (match) · 145 history records