Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T02:38:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
DF 0xdf4a…a131 other 17 markets active 0h ago coverage 101d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate12%2W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$267per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$6
14 days−$6
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 35% −$2
politics 32% −$3
world 28% −$2
sports 3% −$1
crypto 1% $0
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 4 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 11 -2.0% -11.4% 9% 0% -9.7%
all 17 -1.4% -10.7% 12% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -19.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -27.1% 0% -26.2%
20% -34.2% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

101d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses2 / 15
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)17 / 17
History coverage101d
Avg bet$267
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 17 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tarcisio de Freitas finish in second place in the first round of Jun 29 $71 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $1,346 −$1 -0%
Will Nasir Hosseini be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 29 $1,254 −$1 -0%
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 29 $1,242 −$3 -0%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? Apr 17 $11 −$1 -5%
Will SpaceX not IPO by December 31, 2027? Apr 17 $7 −$1 -9%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $6 $0 -8%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 13 $143 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on March 31? Apr 01 $17 $0 +0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Apr 01 $97 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 01 $24 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 27 $105 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in March? Mar 26 $38 $0 -0%
Will Zach Johnson win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 26 $21 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on March 20? Mar 23 $10 $0 +0%
Will Robert Jenrick be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom i Mar 20 $110 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 20 $37 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tarcisio de Freitas finish in second place in the first round of SELL No 100¢ $71 22m
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,344 30m
Will Tarcisio de Freitas finish in second place in the first round of BUY No 100¢ $24 36m
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,318 43m
Will Tarcisio de Freitas finish in second place in the first round of BUY No 100¢ $25 54m
Will Nasir Hosseini be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,253 1h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas finish in second place in the first round of BUY No 100¢ $22 1h
Will Nasir Hosseini be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,228 1h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $27 1h
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $933 1h
Will Nasir Hosseini be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $26 1h
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $306 1h
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $1,242 2h
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? SELL Yes $5 72d
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? BUY Yes $6 72d
Will SpaceX not IPO by December 31, 2027? SELL Yes $6 72d
Will SpaceX not IPO by December 31, 2027? BUY Yes $7 72d
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? SELL Yes $5 73d
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? BUY Yes $5 73d
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes $5 73d
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes $6 74d
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $143 76d
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $143 76d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL No 100¢ $97 88d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY No 100¢ $59 88d
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $14 88d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY No 100¢ $38 88d
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $11 88d
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $24 88d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on March 31? BUY No 100¢ $17 89d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 50 history records