Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:09:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DF 0xdf49…65a4 crypto 167 markets active 4d ago coverage 3d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (103 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$25 (-3%) realized −$25 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate58%97W / 70L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day102.9pace
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 77% −$12
other 23% −$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (103 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-15.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 144 -7.8% -16.6% 57% 27% -15.5%
≤30d 167 -6.7% -15.5% 58% 27% -14.5%
≤90d 167 -6.7% -15.5% 58% 27% -14.5%
all 167 -6.7% -15.5% 58% 27% -14.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover102.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.5% 27% -14.5%
10% ← realistic here -23.6% 11% -22.7%
15% -31.0% 3% -30.2%
20% -37.8% 0% -37.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$25
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses97 / 70
Open positions0
Markets (closed)167 / 167
History coverage3d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day102.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 167 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -31%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 11, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$1 -80%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 -8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$1 -34%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 -7%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$1 -35%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$3 -71%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 11, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$2 -48%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 11 $6 $0 -4%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 11 $8 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 11 $6 $0 -5%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 11, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 11 $9 −$2 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 11 $8 −$1 -8%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 11 $4 −$1 -31%
BNB Up or Down - June 11, 9AM ET Jun 11 $9 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 9AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 9AM ET Jun 11 $8 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 11 $9 −$1 -9%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 11 $8 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$1 -12%
BNB Up or Down - June 11, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 11 $9 −$3 -28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 11 $11 +$1 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 11 $14 −$7 -45%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 11 $14 +$1 +10%
BNB Up or Down - June 11, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 11 $14 $0 -3%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 11, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 11 $4 −$1 -27%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 11 $15 $0 +3%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 11, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 11 $16 −$3 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8AM ET Jun 11 $16 +$1 +6%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 11, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 11 $8 −$3 -30%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET SELL Up 15¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $1 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET SELL Up 79¢ $1 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $2 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $1 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $1 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET SELL Up 30¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET SELL Up 75¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $2 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $2 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $2 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $2 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $2 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 338 history records