Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T05:05:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DF 0xdf49…334d sports 97 markets active 1h ago coverage 68d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$173 (+10%) realized +$174 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate49%45W / 47L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Fees−$38est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$22
14 days+$131
30 days+$131
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% +$131
weather 12% −$29
crypto 6% −$53
other 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-21.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 55 -10.8% -19.3% 42% 35% -22.9%
≤30d 69 -6.1% -15.1% 46% 39% -1.2%
≤90d 92 -12.8% -21.1% 49% 29% -6.9%
all 92 -12.8% -21.1% 49% 29% -6.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.1% 29% -6.9%
10% -28.6% 28% -15.8%
15% -35.5% 27% -24.0%
20% -41.9% 24% -31.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$5 · ×1.26 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.21 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

68d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized+$174
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses45 / 47
Est. fees paid−$38
Open positions5
Markets (closed)92 / 97
History coverage68d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 92 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? No 95¢ 96¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 FUT Esports 56¢ 56¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Over 47¢ 46¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs EDward Gaming 58¢ 56¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Dota 2: D family vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Series Southeast Asia Group Stage InterActive Philippines 72¢ 30¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-58%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 31 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 15 $1 +$1 +83%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $1 +$1 +129%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stag Jun 14 $2 $0 +9%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1 +$1 +62%
Game Handicap: SLY (-2.5) vs UCAM Esports Club (+2.5) Jun 14 $1 +$1 +146%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $2 $0 -7%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $2 $0 -3%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $1 +$1 +114%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $2 $0 +10%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: TheMongolz (-3.5) vs Monte (+3.5) Jun 14 $1 +$1 +76%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $2 −$1 -26%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $1 +$1 +67%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $2 $0 -10%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 14 $1 +$1 +124%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $1 +$1 +93%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $1 $0 +5%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $2 $0 -20%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Gro Jun 14 $2 $0 +1%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 +37%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $2 −$1 -49%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $1 +$1 +54%
Map Handicap: ALL (-1.5) vs BASEMENT BOYS (+1.5) Jun 14 $1 +$1 +61%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $2 −$1 -49%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $1 +$1 +85%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: Marsborne vs Festina Lente (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playo Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $2 $0 -17%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $2 +$2 +90%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $1 +$1 +119%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $2 +$1 +62%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $1 −$1 -99%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $1 +$2 +158%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 40°C on June 11? Jun 10 $1 $0 -19%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 10 $1 $0 -24%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 Jun 10 $1 $0 -3%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 10 $1 $0 -6%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $19 +$15 +76%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 56¢ $1 41m
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $1 1h
Dota 2: D family vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Series S BUY InterActive Philippines 72¢ $1 1h
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics - Map 1 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 59¢ $1 14h
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Team Heretics 49¢ $1 15h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 45¢ $1 15h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs BUY LYON 54¢ $1 15h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner BUY TheMongolz 55¢ $1 15h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner BUY Monte 42¢ $1 15h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY Leo Team 44¢ $1 15h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 41¢ $1 16h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 42¢ $1 16h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $1 16h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner BUY TheMongolz 58¢ $1 17h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1 18h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner SELL Gen.G 100¢ $1 18h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner SELL Bilibili Gaming 100¢ $2 18h
Map Handicap: ALL (-1.5) vs BASEMENT BOYS (+1.5) SELL Alliance 100¢ $2 18h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner SELL T1 100¢ $2 18h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki - Map 2 Winner SELL K27 100¢ $2 18h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 51¢ $1 18h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner BUY Top Esports 47¢ $1 18h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 49¢ $1 18h
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 61¢ $1 18h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 62¢ $1 19h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 29¢ $1 19h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner BUY Gen.G 67¢ $1 19h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 64¢ $1 19h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Aurora Gaming 51¢ $1 19h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Liquid 47¢ $1 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.37 · official $4.37 (match) · 305 history records