Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T10:44:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

DF
0xdf45…ea2c
sports · 167 markets active 1h ago
4.0score
−$832 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$825 · open −$7
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$244
Realized−$825
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses108 / 54
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$78
Open positions5
Markets (closed)162 / 167
History coverage270d
Avg bet$219
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%
Chart Positions 5 History 162 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$19
7 days−$155
14 days−$1,252
30 days−$692
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 1.5 Under 51¢ 50¢ $70 $70 −$1 (-1%)
Brazil leading at halftime? No 58¢ 57¢ $62 $61 −$1 (-2%)
Switzerland leading at halftime? No 42¢ 36¢ $52 $45 −$7 (-13%)
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 0.5 Under 44¢ 44¢ $34 $35 +$0 (+1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? No 41¢ 42¢ $32 $33 +$1 (+4%)
Armenia vs. Moldova: Both Teams to Score No 51¢ 0¢ $65 $0 −$65 (-100%)
Flavio Cobolli vs. Alexander Zverev: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Under 3.5 42¢ 0¢ $54 $0 −$54 (-100%)
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? No 73¢ 0¢ $107 $0 −$107 (-100%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? No 31¢ 0¢ $39 $0 −$39 (-100%)
Will Morocco vs. Norway end in a draw? No 73¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-04? No 59¢ 0¢ $159 $0 −$159 (-100%)
Netherlands leading at halftime? No 41¢ 0¢ $44 $0 −$44 (-100%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-04? Yes 98¢ 0¢ $590 $0 −$590 (-100%)
UD Almería vs. CD Castellón: Both Teams to Score No 39¢ 0¢ $44 $0 −$44 (-100%)
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Under 37¢ 0¢ $51 $0 −$51 (-100%)
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score No 49¢ 0¢ $66 $0 −$66 (-100%)
Jakub Mensik vs. Alexander Zverev: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Under 3.5 37¢ 0¢ $43 $0 −$43 (-100%)
Libema Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Botic van de Zandschulp Botic van de Zandschulp 36¢ 0¢ $36 $0 −$36 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Paraguay leading at halftime? Jun 13 $55 +$13 +23%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $28 +$7 +24%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $91 +$67 +73%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $108 −$107 -99%
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $52 −$51 -98%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $42 +$56 +134%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $111 +$63 +57%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $67 −$66 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) Jun 11 $9 +$3 +27%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 215.5 Jun 11 $60 +$63 +105%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 11 $60 +$72 +121%
Armenia vs. Moldova: Both Teams to Score Jun 09 $66 −$65 -99%
Libema Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Botic van de Zandschulp Jun 09 $37 −$36 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 09 $39 −$39 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-11.5) Jun 09 $13 +$2 +18%
Spurs vs. Knicks: 1H Moneyline Jun 09 $66 +$62 +93%
UD Almería vs. CD Castellón: Both Teams to Score Jun 08 $44 −$44 -98%
Netherlands leading at halftime? Jun 08 $44 −$44 -98%
Greece vs. Italy: Both Teams to Score Jun 08 $56 +$62 +109%
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $44 −$3 -8%
France vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $47 −$47 -100%
Will Ukraine win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $12 +$2 +18%
Denmark vs. Ukraine: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $75 −$69 -92%
Will Morocco vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 07 $11 −$11 -99%
Will Bolivia win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $72 +$9 +13%
Flavio Cobolli vs. Alexander Zverev: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 06 $55 −$54 -98%
Will Tajikistan vs. India end in a draw? Jun 05 $40 +$12 +31%
Jakub Mensik vs. Alexander Zverev: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 05 $44 −$43 -98%
Will Cyprus win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $24 +$3 +12%
Slovenia vs. Cyprus: O/U 2.5 Jun 04 $91 +$151 +166%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $590 −$590 -100%
Philippines vs. Guam: Both Teams to Score Jun 04 $37 −$37 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $161 −$159 -99%
Auger-Aliassime vs. Cobolli: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 03 $9 +$3 +36%
Matteo Berrettini vs. Matteo Arnaldi: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 03 $41 +$13 +33%
Will Croatia vs. Belgium end in a draw? Jun 03 $26 +$9 +36%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-01? Jun 02 $21 +$4 +18%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-01? Jun 02 $35 +$9 +24%
Spread: Knicks (-12.5) Jun 01 $9 −$9 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs Jun 01 $45 −$45 -100%
Rafael Jodar vs. Pablo Carreno Busta: Total Sets O/U 4.5 Jun 01 $99 −$99 -100%
RC Deportivo La Coruña vs. UD Las Palmas: O/U 2.5 Jun 01 $72 −$72 -100%
Burgos CF leading at halftime? Jun 01 $80 −$80 -100%
US Cremonese vs. Como 1907: Both Teams to Score Jun 01 $81 −$81 -100%
Galatasaray vs. Besiktas Jun 01 $102 −$102 -100%
ACF Fiorentina vs. Atalanta BC: O/U 3.5 Jun 01 $67 −$67 -100%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. Jun 01 $116 −$116 -100%
Set Handicap: Ruud (-2.5) vs Fonseca (+2.5) Jun 01 $47 +$15 +32%
Roland Garros ATP: Moise Kouame vs Alejandro Tabilo May 31 $40 +$10 +24%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $41 +$30 +73%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 56% −$2,437
sports 43% +$1,757
world 1% −$109
crypto 0% −$44
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 0.5 BUY Under 44¢ $35 1h
Brazil leading at halftime? BUY No 58¢ $63 1h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 1.5 BUY Under 51¢ $71 1h
Switzerland leading at halftime? BUY No 42¢ $53 7h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY No 73¢ $108 18h
Paraguay leading at halftime? BUY No 81¢ $55 22h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 80¢ $18 23h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 80¢ $11 23h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 41¢ $33 23h
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 37¢ $52 23h
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 1.5 BUY Under 57¢ $91 30h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $42 43h
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY No 63¢ $111 47h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 49¢ $67 47h
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) BUY Knicks 78¢ $9 2d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 215.5 BUY Under 48¢ $60 2d
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY No 45¢ $60 2d
Armenia vs. Moldova: Both Teams to Score BUY No 51¢ $66 3d
Libema Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Botic van de Zandschulp BUY Botic van de Zandschulp 36¢ $37 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 31¢ $39 3d
UD Almería vs. CD Castellón: Both Teams to Score BUY No 39¢ $44 4d
Spurs vs. Knicks: 1H Moneyline BUY Knicks 51¢ $66 4d
Spread: Spurs (-11.5) BUY Knicks 84¢ $13 4d
Netherlands leading at halftime? BUY No 41¢ $44 5d
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 33¢ $40 5d
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 34¢ $44 5d
Will Ukraine win on 2026-06-07? SELL No 97¢ $14 5d
Denmark vs. Ukraine: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 5¢ $6 5d
Will Morocco vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY No 73¢ $11 5d
Greece vs. Italy: Both Teams to Score BUY No 47¢ $56 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +63%
net ROI/market (all)-6.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -14.7% -22.8% 50% 50% -19.9%
≤30d 78 +2.2% -7.5% 62% 60% -18.4%
≤90d 101 +6.6% -3.5% 64% 60% -27.6%
all 162 +3.6% -6.3% 67% 63% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.3% 63% -11.6%
10% -15.3% 51% -20.0%
15% -23.4% 33% -27.8%
20% -30.9% 26% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $243.67 · official $243.68 (match) · 333 history records